IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iaecre/v27y2021i2d10.1007_s11294-021-09822-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Non-Linear Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: The Nigeria Experience

Author

Listed:
  • Olusola Joel Oyeleke

    (Redeemer’s University)

Abstract

Based on linear models, the bulk of empirical studies have confirmed that large and persistent fiscal deficits are inflationary in most developing economies including Nigeria. However, non-linearity between the variables has not been a subject of consideration in empirical research. This study investigated the non-linear relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. Annual data used for the analysis were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Data & Statistics, and World Development Indicators. The autoregressive distributed lag method of estimation was employed to analyse the data. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test technique of co-integration results displayed evidence of a long-run relationship among inflation, fiscal deficit squared, real interest rates and real exchange rates. The findings revealed that, both in the long run and short run, fiscal deficit squared was positive and statistically significant, indicating the existence of a non-linear relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study found that the lag (1) of real exchange rates had a negative and statistically significant effect on inflation dynamics only in the long run, while real interest rates had no effect on inflation during the period. Authorities in Nigeria should adopt a new method of debt financing to ensure fiscal consolidation that would be more effective in price stabilisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Olusola Joel Oyeleke, 2021. "On the Non-Linear Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: The Nigeria Experience," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(2), pages 105-117, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:27:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11294-021-09822-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-021-09822-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11294-021-09822-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11294-021-09822-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "A Frictionless View of US Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 323-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi, 2020. "Fighting African capital flight: trajectories, dynamics, and tendencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Adams, Charles & Ferrarini, Benno & Park, Donghyun, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 205, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan B., 2019. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary in African countries? A new evidence from an asymmetric cointegration analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Muhammad Khan & Waqas Hanif, 2020. "Institutional quality and the relationship between inflation and economic growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 627-649, February.
    6. Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.
    7. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    9. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
    10. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    11. Agras, Jean & Chapman, Duane, 1999. "A dynamic approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 267-277, February.
    12. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    14. Moses K. Tule & Usman Nuruddeen & Oloruntoba S. Ogundele & Apinran O. Martins, 2019. "A Test of the Fiscal Theory of Price Level: Case Study of Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 67-76.
    15. Ebenezer A. OLUBIYI & Michael A. BOLARINWA, 2018. "Fiscal deficit and inflation rate in selected African Regional Blocs: A comparative analysis," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 89-101, March.
    16. Olusola Oyeleke & Monica Orisadare, 2018. "Relative Importance of Public Debts and Money Growth on Inflation in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(7), pages 1-99, July.
    17. Abu Nurudeen & Karim Mohd Zaini Abd, 2015. "The Non-Linear Relationship Between Fiscal Deficits And Inflation: Evidence From Africa," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(2), pages 102-112, December.
    18. Cochrane, John H, 2001. "Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 69-116, January.
    19. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
    20. Lionel Effiom & Alfa Charles Achu & Samuel Etim Edet, 2020. "Capital Flight and Domestic Investment in Nigeria: Evidence From ARDL Methodology," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(1), pages 348-360, January.
    21. Oseni Isiaq Olasunkanmi & Sanni Hauwa Yetunde, 2016. "Does Fiscal Deficit Granger Cause Impulsiveness in Inflation Rate in Nigeria?," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(4), pages 208-216, October.
    22. Cebula, Richard J., 1997. "The Impact of Federal Budget Deficits on Long¬Term Nominai Interest Rates in the U.S.: New Evidence and an Updating Using Cointegration and Granger-Causality Tests, 1973. 2-1993.3," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 50(1), pages 49-60.
    23. Ogundipe, Adeyemi & Alege, Philip & Ogundipe, Oluwatomisin, 2014. "Income Heterogeneity and Environmental Kuznets Curve in Africa," MPRA Paper 55822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2020. "Application of Bootstrap Simulation and Asymmetric Causal Approach to Fiscal Deficit-Inflation Nexus," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(2), pages 123-140, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    2. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2009. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 525-539, December.
    3. Łyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz-Łyziak, Joanna, 2020. "Does fiscal stance affect inflation expectations? Evidence for European economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 296-310.
    4. Bilal Raza & Khurram S Mughal, 2022. "Fiscal Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 108, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    5. Moreira, Tito Belchior S. & e Souza, Geraldo da Silva & Almeida, Charles Lima de, 2007. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policies: The Brazilian Case," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.
    6. Willem Buiter, 2000. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Again," CESifo Working Paper Series 303, CESifo.
    7. Kaan Masatci & Asuman Oktayer, 2022. "The Power of Linear Methods in Determining the Dominant Fiscal Regime: A Research on Turkiye," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 65(65), pages 375-394, June.
    8. Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July.
    9. Ismail O. Fasanya & Ayinke Fajobi & Abiodun Adetokunbo, 2021. "Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary In Nigeria? New Evidence From Bounds Testing To Cointegration With Structural Breaks," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(228), pages 123-148, January –.
    10. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "Reflections on fiscalist divergent price-paths," Working Papers 0533, Banco de España.
    11. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    12. Joanna Mackiewicz­‑Łyziak, 2014. "Wpływ długu publicznego na oczekiwania inflacyjne konsumentów w Europie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 113-132.
    13. Buiter, Willem H., 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 2205, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    15. Buiter, Willem H. & Sibert, Anne C., 2018. "The fallacy of the fiscal theory of the price level: One last time," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-56.
    16. Libo Xu & Apostolos Serletis, 2017. "Financial Frictions and the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Determination," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 251-272, April.
    17. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Surprises and Fiscal Sustainability Regimes in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 10558, CESifo.
    18. Afonso, António & Gonçalves, Luis, 2020. "The policy mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2020. "Application of Bootstrap Simulation and Asymmetric Causal Approach to Fiscal Deficit-Inflation Nexus," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(2), pages 123-140, May.
    20. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:27:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11294-021-09822-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.