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What Starts Inflation: Evidence from the OECD Countries

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  • Boschen, John F
  • Weise, Charles L

Abstract

We use a pooled cross-country time series framework to study the factors associated with the start of 73 inflation episodes in OECD countries since 1960. We find that policy-makers' pursuit of high real growth targets and national elections were important factors in initiating inflation episodes. U.S. inflation turns out to be a triggering event for simultaneous outbreaks of inflation across countries. Several other explanations for inflation starts, including increases in the natural rate of unemployment, oil price shocks, changes in the political orientation of governments, and government debt policy, are not supported by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Boschen, John F & Weise, Charles L, 2003. " What Starts Inflation: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 323-349, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:35:y:2003:i:3:p:323-49
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2009. "The hypothesis of a unit root in OECD inflation revisited," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 153-161.
    2. Marc Hofstetter, 2008. "Why Have So Many Disinflations Succeeded?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(1), pages 89-106, January.
    3. Pavle Petrovic & Zorica Mladenovic & Aleksandra Nojkovic, 2011. "Inflation Triggers in Transition Economies: Their Evolution and Specific Features," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 101-124, September.
    4. Logan Rangasamy, 2011. "Food Inflation In South Africa: Some Implications For Economic Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(2), pages 184-201, June.
    5. Ilker Domaç & Eray M. Yücel, 2005. "What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 141-164, April.
    6. David Beckworth & Kenneth P. Moon & J. Holland Toles, 2012. "Can Monetary Policy Influence Long-Term Interest Rates? It Depends," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 1080-1096, October.
    7. Charles Weise, 2004. "Alternative explanations for US inflation performance, 1961-2000," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 111, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. repec:rej:journl:v:19:y:2016:i:61:p:3-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Christopher Bowdler & Luca Nunziata, 2004. "A note on the determinants of inflation starts in the OECD," Economics Papers 2004-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    10. Lothian, James R. & McCarthy, Cornelia H., 2009. "The behavior of money and other economic variables: Two natural experiments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1204-1220, November.
    11. Akcay, Belgin & Yucel, Eray, 2014. "Unveiling the House Price Movements and Financial Development," MPRA Paper 59377, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2014.
    12. Pavle Petrovic & Zorica Mladenovic & Aleksandra Nojkovic, 2011. "Inflation Triggers in Transition Economies: Their Evolution and Specific Features," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 101-124, September.
    13. Mosayeb PAHLAVANI & Mohammad RAHIMI, 2009. "Sources of Inflation in Iran: An application of the ARDL Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    14. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "What Triggers Prolonged Inflation Regimes? A Historical Analysis," Working Paper Series 1109, European Central Bank.
    15. Marco Arnone & Bernard J Laurens & Jean-François Segalotto & Martin Sommer, 2009. "Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 263-296, June.
    16. Alpanda, Sami & Honig, Adam, 2010. "Political monetary cycles and a de facto ranking of central bank independence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1003-1023, October.

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