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The hypothesis of a unit root in OECD inflation revisited

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  • Romero-Ávila, Diego
  • Usabiaga, Carlos

Abstract

This paper investigates the hypothesis of a unit root in inflation for 13 OECD countries over the period 1957-2005, taking into account cross-sectional dependence and multiple mean shifts. We conduct unit root testing with the more powerful unit root tests with cross-dependence proposed by Smith et al. [Smith, L. V., Leybourne, S., Kim, T., & Newbold, P. (2004). More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to the mean reversion in real exchange rates. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(2), 147-170] and a bootstrap version of the panel stationarity test of Hadri [Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 3(2), 148-161.], which provide inconclusive evidence on the time series properties of OECD inflation rates. To shed some light on this issue, we employ the recently developed panel stationarity test of Carrión-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrión-i-Silvestre, J. L., Del Barrio, T., & López-Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita. The Econometrics Journal, 8(2), 159-175] that assumes a highly flexible trend function by incorporating an unknown number of breaks in level. Overall, our confirmatory analysis renders clear-cut evidence in favor of regime-wise stationarity. Furthermore, the breaks in inflation detected are closely associated with macroeconomic shocks and changes in monetary policy.

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  • Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2009. "The hypothesis of a unit root in OECD inflation revisited," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 153-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:61:y:2009:i:2:p:153-161
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0434, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula & Atoi, Ngozi V, 2019. "Are inflation rates in OECD countries actually stationary during 2011-2018? Evidence based on Fourier Nonlinear Unit root tests with Break," MPRA Paper 93937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sule Akkoyunlu & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Does the Law of One Price Hold in a High-Inflation Environment?," KOF Working papers 10-248, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. repec:zbw:rwirep:0434 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sule Akkoyunlu & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2014. "Does the law of one price hold in a high-inflation environment? A tale of two cities in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(26), pages 3236-3245, September.
    6. Yaya OlaOluwa S., 2018. "Another Look At The Stationarity Of Inflation Rates In Oecd Countries: Application Of Structural Break-Garch-Based Unit Root Tests," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 477-493, September.
    7. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2015. "Nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root tests and the great moderation," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(2), pages 161-187, April.
    8. Alejandro C. García-Cintado & Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2016. "The economic integration of Spain: a change in the inflation pattern," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, December.
    9. Annette Zeilstra & Adam Elbourne, 2014. "Follow the leader? Public and private wages in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 274, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.
    11. Dimitrios Bakas & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2014. "Unemployment by Gender: Evidence from EU Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 103-111, February.
    12. Azimi, Mohammad Naim, 2015. "Is CPI generated from stationary process? An investigation on unit root hypothesis of India’s CPI," MPRA Paper 69518, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 2016.
    13. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    14. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
    15. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "The stationarity of inflation in Croatia: anti-inflation stabilization program and the change in persistence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 45-58, February.
    16. Schleer, Frauke & Kappler, Marcus, 2014. "The Phillips Curve: (In)stability, the role of credit, and implications for potential output measurement," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-067, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Carlos Usabiaga & Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "New Disaggregate Evidence on Spanish Inflation Persistence," EcoMod2012 3800, EcoMod.
    18. Annette Zeilstra & Adam Elbourne, 2014. "Follow the leader? Public and private wages in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 274.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2012. "Disaggregate evidence on Spanish inflation persistence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3029-3046, August.

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