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Sources of Inflation in Iran: An application of the ARDL Approach

Author

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  • Mosayeb PAHLAVANI

    ()

  • Mohammad RAHIMI

Abstract

This paper examines the major determinants of inflation in Iran using annual time series data (1971 to 2006) by applying the ARDL approach. Taking into account the special characteristics of Iran’s economy and by considering recent empirical studies in the context of inflation, an empirical model has been constructed which emphasizes the effects of liquidity, the exchange rate, GDP, the expected rate of inflation and imported inflation factors along with the dummy variable presenting the effect of Iran/Iraq war on Iran’s economy. The empirical results show that in the long-run, the main determinants of inflation in Iran are liquidity, the exchange rate, the rate of expected inflation and the rate of imported inflation. All these variables had significant effects on the inflation rate in the short run. Moreover the destructive eight year war with Iraq had a positive effect on the inflation rate in the Iranian economy. Finally, the error correction term (-0.3995) is found to be negative and statistically significant suggesting a quick adjustment process.

Suggested Citation

  • Mosayeb PAHLAVANI & Mohammad RAHIMI, 2009. "Sources of Inflation in Iran: An application of the ARDL Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:9:y2009:i:1_4
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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs914.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Subrata Ghatak & Jalal Siddiki, 2001. "The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 573-583.
    2. Christopher Bowdler & Luca Nunziata, 2004. "A note on the determinants of inflation starts in the OECD," Economics Papers 2004-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 97/145, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Boschen, John F & Weise, Charles L, 2003. " What Starts Inflation: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 323-349, June.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    6. Milton Friedman, 1971. "A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie71-1.
    7. Anna J. Schwartz, 1987. "Secular Price Change in Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters,in: Money in Historical Perspective, pages 78-109 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 2001. "Determinants of inflation in Poland : A structural cointegration approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shoora B. Paudyal Ph.D., 2014. "Determinants of Inflation in Nepal: An Empirical Assessment," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 26(2), pages 61-82, October.
    2. Kaiyatsa, Stevier, 2015. "Does the farm input subsidy program displace commercial fertilizer sales? Empirical evidence from agro-dealers in Malawi," Theses-Masters 252977, AgEcon Search.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Liquidity; ARDL approach; Iran’s economy;

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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