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Impacts of trade liberalisation on aggregate import in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds test approach

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  • Hoque, Mohammad Monjurul
  • Yusop, Zulkornain

Abstract

Bangladesh has been liberalising its trade regime extensively since 1992 in order to achieve higher trade performance and GDP growth. However, despite the long period of liberalisation, imports are still growing faster than exports, increasing the trade deficit. Trade liberalisation is considered a crucial contributory factor. The paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the aggregate import in Bangladesh, using the ARDL Bounds Test approach with annual time series data from 1972-1973 to 2004-2005. Empirical results suggest that trade liberalisation through reduction of the import duty rate increases the aggregate import substantially in the short run, but insignificantly in the long run. Trade liberalisation using simplification of non-tariff measures shows a significant but low positive impact on the aggregate import in the long run. Liberalisation interaction with price decreases imports slightly hence improves the trade balance, while interaction with income increases imports slightly hence worsens the trade balance. An increase in imports is mainly stimulated by an increase in income. Moreover, higher income elasticity compared to price elasticity indicates that an effort to maintain imports at the desired level by increasing import duty could be counter balanced and ineffective. Therefore, a consistent policy to promote not only consumption of domestically produced products, but investment, production, and backward linkage industries is essential in order to improve the trade balance and GDP growth in Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoque, Mohammad Monjurul & Yusop, Zulkornain, 2010. "Impacts of trade liberalisation on aggregate import in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds test approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-52, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:21:y:2010:i:1:p:37-52
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    Cited by:

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    2. Temitope Leshoro & Umakrishnan Kollamparambil, 2016. "Inflation Or Output Targeting? Monetary Policy Appropriateness In South Africa," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 69(276), pages 77-104.
    3. repec:sae:globus:v:19:y:2018:i:3:p:543-555 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Reed, W. Robert & Zhu, Min, 2017. "On estimating long-run effects in models with lagged dependent variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 302-311.
    5. Khatun, Fahmida & Ahamad, Mazbahul G., 2012. "Investigating the determinants of inflationary trends in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds F-Test Approach," MPRA Paper 42572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mustafizur Rahman & Mazbahul Golam Ahamad & A K M Nazrul Islam & Muhammad Al Amin, 2012. "Agricultural Trade between Bangladesh and India: An Analysis of Trends, Trading Patterns and Determinants," CPD-CMI Working Paper 3, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    7. Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey: An ARDL bounds test approach (1965–2009)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 511-517.
    8. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Nunes, André Roque, 2016. "Electricity generation mix and economic growth: What role is being played by nuclear sources and carbon dioxide emissions in France?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 7-19.
    9. Chassem, Nacisse Palissy, 2011. "Hypothèse de Thirlwall: cas des pays de la zone Franc
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    10. Muhammad Ahad & Adeel Ahmad Dar, 2018. "A Dynamic Relationship between Financial Development and Import Demand for Bangladesh: An Evidence from Combine Cointegration and Granger Causality Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 543-555, June.
    11. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Bo-Yu & Tsai, Pei-Hui & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the impacts of a carbon tax on imported forest products—evidence from Taiwan," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 45-52.
    12. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2016. "Renewable vs non-renewable electricity and the industrial production nexus: Evidence from an ARDL bounds test approach for Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 645-655.
    13. Jayanti Bhattacharjee & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2015. "Economic Growth of Selected South Asian Countries: Does Institution Matter?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 356-370, February.

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