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ARDL Modelling Approach to Testing the Financial Liberalisation Hypothesis

It is a stylised fact that financial "repression" retards economic growth. Hence, financial liberalisation is advocated to remove the stranglehold on the economy. Financial liberalisation policy argues that deregulation of interest rate would result into a higher real interest rate which would lead to increased savings, increased investment and achieve efficiency in financial resource allocation. Past studies have reported inconclusive results regarding the interest rate effects on savings and investment. This paper examines the financial liberalisation hypothesis by employing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling approach on Nepalese data. Results show that the real interest rate affects both savings and investment positively.

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File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012198.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp05-15.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp05-15
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3659
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html

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  1. Lewis, Jeffrey D., 1992. "Financial repression and liberalization in a general equilibrium model with financial markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-166, April.
  2. Morisset, Jacques, 1991. "Does financial liberalization really improve private investment in developing countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 717, The World Bank.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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  6. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  7. Bayoumi, Tamim, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1432-43, November.
  8. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
  9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  10. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
  12. Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, Ron P., 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9811, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  14. Oriana Bandiera & Gerard Caprio Jr. & Patrick Honohan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1998. "Does Financial Reform Raise or Reduce Savings?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 413, Boston College Department of Economics.
  15. Loayza, N. & Schmidt, K. & Serven, L., 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Papers 47, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  16. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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