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Revisiting Budget and Trade Deficits in Lebanon: A Critique

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    This study re-examines the relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit in Lebanon. In contrast to earlier studies, we start by testing for a unit root in the presence of structural change using the Innovational Outlier (IO) model. This study also utilizes the newly proposed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to examine such a relationship. The results show that the endogenously determined times of the breaks coincide with observed real events occurring during the years of Civil War in Lebanon and especially after the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982. This study finds, as well, that the trade deficit in Lebanon has a long run impact on the budget deficit.

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    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012220.pdf
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    Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp06-07.

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    Length: 11 pages
    Date of creation: 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-07
    Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
    Phone: +612 4221-3659
    Fax: +612 4221-3725
    Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html
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    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    3. Ali Salman Saleh & Charles Harvie, 2005. "The Budget Deficit And Economic Performance: A Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 50(02), pages 211-243.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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