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Efekt fiskalny uszczelniania systemu podatkowego w Polsce: próba oszacowania w zakresie podatku CIT

Author

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  • KAROLINA KONOPCZAK
  • ALEKSANDER ŁOŻYKOWSKI

Abstract

W artykule podjęto próbę oszacowania efektu fiskalnego działań uszczelniających w zakresie podatku CIT, prowadzonych w Polsce w latach 2014–2018, tj. ich wpływu na rozmiar luki podatkowej i na dochody podatkowe. W tym celu zaproponowano ekonometryczną metodę kwantyfikacji zmian luki CIT oraz ich dekompozycji na część o charakterze cyklicznym i strukturalnym. Otrzymane wyniki wskazują, że na skutek działania czynników strukturalnych (tj. innych niż koniunkturalne) luka CIT w Polsce zmniejszyła się w latach 2016–2018 łącznie o ok. 6 mld zł, co stanowiło ponad 40% wzrostu dochodów podatkowych z tytułu CIT. W związku z niewielkim znaczeniem innych czynników, które mogły odpowiadać za strukturalne zmiany luki CIT, efekt ten z dużym prawdopodobieństwem można przypisać uszczelnieniu systemu podatkowego.

Suggested Citation

  • Karolina Konopczak & Aleksander Łożykowski, 2021. "Efekt fiskalny uszczelniania systemu podatkowego w Polsce: próba oszacowania w zakresie podatku CIT," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 25-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:aoq:ekonom:y:2021:i:1:p:25-55
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    luka podatkowa CIT; kointegracja nieliniowa; elastyczność dochodów podatkowych; cykl koniunkturalny;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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