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Does Inflation Targeting Always Matter for the ERPT? A robust approach

Author

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  • Antonia Lopez Villavicencio

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marc Pourroy

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, Axe 2 (2017-2021) : "Vulnérabilités et risques" (MSHS Poitiers) - MSHS de Poitiers - Maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of different forms of inflation targeting (IT) in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). To this end, we first estimate the ERPT for a large sample of countries using state-space models. We then consider the adoption of an inflation targeting framework by a country as a treatment to find suitable counterfactuals to the actual targeters. By controlling for self-selection bias and endogeneity of the monetary policy regime, we confirm that the ERPT tends to be lower for countries adopting explicit IT. However, we uncover that older regimes, adopting a range or point with tolerance band and keeping inflation close to the target, outperform other IT regimes. We also show that IT is effective even with a relatively high inflation target or low central bank independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Always Matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Post-Print hal-02082568, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02082568
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.04.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES & Kabinet KABA & Alexandru MINEA, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Developing countries’ Performance: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2941, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    2. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Boubaker, Sabri, 2023. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting regime under energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Testing the asymmetric effects of exchange rate pass‐through in BRICS countries: Does the state of the economy matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 188-233, January.
    4. Antonia López‐Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2022. "Fed's Policy Changes and Inflation in Emerging Markets: Lessons from the Taper Tantrum," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 1099-1121, June.
    5. Adina Ionela Străchinaru & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu, 2019. "Assessing the Sustainability of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from EU Countries with Non-EURO Currencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Usman, Ojonugwa & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Arshid Hussain PEER & Mirza Allim BAIG, 2023. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through in India: Lessons from international experience," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(634), S), pages 239-254, Spring.
    8. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2022/0237, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Bambe, Bao-We-Wal, 2023. "Inflation targeting and private domestic investment in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Bao-We-Wal Bambe, 2023. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Post-Print hal-04227639, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; exchange rate pass-through; propensity score matching; state-space model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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