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Re-evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting

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  • Ardakani, Omid M.
  • Kishor, N. Kundan
  • Song, Suyong

Abstract

This paper estimates the treatment effect of inflation targeting on macroeconomic variables using a semiparametric single index method by taking into account the model misspecification of parametric propensity scores. Our study uses a broader set of preconditions for inflation targeting and macroeconomic outcome variables than the existing literature. The results suggest no significant difference in the inflation level and inflation volatility between targeters and non-targeters after the adoption of inflation targeting. We find that inflation targeting reduces sacrifice ratio and interest rate volatility in the developed economies, and that it enhances fiscal discipline in both the industrial and developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ardakani, Omid M. & Kishor, N. Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2018. "Re-evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 76-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:90:y:2018:i:c:p:76-97
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.045
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    2. Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Amy (Qijia) Li, 2019. "The Effects of Inflation Targeting for Financial Development," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-21, Bank of Canada.
    3. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    4. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Always Matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Working Papers hal-02082568, HAL.
    5. Victor Pontines, 2021. "The real effects of loan-to-value limits: empirical evidence from Korea," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1311-1350, September.
    6. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2024. "Inflation targeting and disinflation costs in Emerging Market economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 283-312, February.
    7. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Inflation-Targeting and Inflation Volatility: International Evidence from the Cosine-Squared Cepstrum," Working Papers 202021, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Inflation-targeting and inflation volatility: International evidence from the cosine-squared cepstrum," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 167, pages 29-38.
    9. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2023. "Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Wellington Charles Lacerda Nobrega, 2019. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Risk in Latin America," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(11), pages 2389-2408, September.
    11. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Does inflation targeting always matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    12. Farvaque, Etienne & Malan, Franck & Stanek, Piotr, 2020. "Misplaced childhood: When recession children grow up as central bankers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021. "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2539-2585, November.
    16. Adina Ionela Străchinaru & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu, 2019. "Assessing the Sustainability of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from EU Countries with Non-EURO Currencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-13, October.
    17. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2019. "Adopting inflation targeting in emerging markets: exploring the factors behind the decision," MPRA Paper 115797, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jun 2020.
    19. Bao-We-Wal Bambe, 2023. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Post-Print hal-04227639, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Propensity score; Treatment effects; Single index model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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