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The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Yunjong Eo
  • Denny Lie

Abstract

How and under what circumstances can adjusting the inflation target serve as a stabilization-policy tool and contribute to welfare improvement? We answer these questions quantitatively with a standard New Keynesian model that includes cost-push type shocks which create a trade-off between inflation and output gap stabilization. We show that this trade-off leads to a non-trivial welfare cost under a standard Taylor rule, even with optimized policy coefficients. We then propose an additional policy tool of an inflation target rule and find that the optimal target needs to be adjusted in a persistent manner and in the opposite direction to the realization of a cost-push shock. The inflation target rule, combined with a Taylor rule, significantly reduces fluctuations in inflation originating from the cost-push shocks and mitigates the policy trade-off, resulting in a similar level of welfare to that associated with the Ramsey optimal policy. The welfare implications of the inflation target rule are more pronounced under a flatter Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunjong Eo & Denny Lie, 2017. "The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy," CAMA Working Papers 2017-27, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-27
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yunjong Eo & Denny Lie, 2025. "Changes in the Inflation Target and the Comovement Between Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 101(332), pages 3-40, March.
    2. Dooyeon Cho & Husang Kim, 2024. "Inflation target adjustments: Does an improvement in institutional or economic preconditions matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 129-179, August.
    3. Eo, Yunjong & Lie, Denny, 2020. "Average inflation targeting and interest-rate smoothing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Denny Lie, 2019. "Observed Inflation‐target Adjustments in an Estimated DSGE Model for Indonesia: Do They Matter for Aggregate Fluctuations?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 38(4), pages 261-285, December.
    5. Qazi Haque, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target, and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    6. Dvalishvili, Archil & Dvalishvili, Mikheil & Thurston, Thom, 2024. "Nominal GDP growth targeting vs. Taylor rules in a model with financial frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Joshua Brault & Qazi Haque & Louis Phaneuf, 2025. "Time-Varying Inflation Target and Unbiased Taylor Rule Estimation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2025-03 Classification-E5, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    8. Ardakani, Omid M. & Kishor, N. Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2018. "Re-evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 76-97.
    9. Kim, Hyerim & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2022. "The Bank of Korea watch," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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