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Flexible Exchange Rate with Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Issues

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  • José De Gregorio
  • Andrea Tokman
  • Rodrigo Valdés

Abstract

The first five years of the flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting regime in Chile have shown positive results. Inflation is under control, the exchange rate has moved with the external conditions, monetary policy has been countercyclical and the cycle has apparently smoothened. Even though exchange rate volatility has increased, as expected with a flexible regime, this has also happened in other countries with similar characteristics. This increased volatility has lower extreme real exchange rate valuations than in the past, as is also seen in other countries with alternative exchange rate regimes. Important progress in derivatives market deepening, as well in a lower pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation, have contributed to increasing the credibility and feasibility of the current policy framework, while minimizing potential costs derived from that framework.

Suggested Citation

  • José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman & Rodrigo Valdés, 2005. "Flexible Exchange Rate with Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Issues," Research Department Publications 4427, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4427
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    2. Skorepa, Michal & Komarek, Lubos, 2015. "Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 654-674.
    3. Jorge Miranda P., 2013. "Deviation of the purchasing power parity hypothesis and equilibrium real exchange rate: Chile 1986-2011," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(3), pages 04-31, December.
    4. Roberto Chang, 2008. "Inflation Targeting, Reserves Accumulation, and Exchange Rate Management in Latin America," Borradores de Economia 487, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Frenkel, Roberto & Rapetti, Martín, 2012. "Exchange rate regimes in the major Latin American countries since the 1950s: lessons from history," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 157-188, January.
    6. Stan Du Plessis & Monique Brigitte Reid, 2015. "The Exchange Rate Dimension of Inflation Targeting: Target Levels and Currency Volatility," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(2), pages 174-179, June.
    7. Grossmann, Axel & Love, Inessa & Orlov, Alexei G., 2014. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: A panel VAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-27.
    8. Gabriela Contreras & Francisco Pinto, 2016. "Traspaso de tipo de cambio nominal a inflación desagregada en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 154-170, August.
    9. Ahmed M. Khalid, 2006. "Is Inflation Targeting the Best Policy Choice for Emerging Economies? A Survey of Emerging Market Experiences and Lessons for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 145-165.
    10. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
    11. Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
    12. Miranda, Jorge, 2012. "Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile: Dinámica, Tendencia y Equilibrio [Real Exchange Rate in Chile: Dynamics, Trend and Equilibrium]," MPRA Paper 43076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Michael Bordo & Pierre Siklos, 2014. "Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 20693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Grossmann, Axel & Orlov, Alexei G., 2022. "Exchange rate misalignments, capital flows and volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Muhammad Naveed Tahir, 2011. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate and Financial Globalization," Working Papers 1130, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    16. Rodrigo Valdés, 2007. "Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Selected Issues," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 22, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Federico Sturzenegger, 2019. "Macri´s Macro: The meandering road to stability and growth," Working Papers 135, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2019.
    18. Miguel Gouvêa & António Portugal Duarte, 2011. "Choice and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries: The Case of Chile," Book Chapters, in: Stefan Bogdan Salej & Dejan Eric & Srdjan Redzepagic & Ivan Stosic (ed.), Contemporary Issues in the Integration Processes of Western Balkan Countries in the European Union, chapter 19, pages 304-321, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    19. Adnen Chockri & Ibticem Frihka, 2011. "La portée de la politique de ciblage d’inflation: Approche analytique et empirique pour le cas Tunisien," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(1), pages 91-111, March.
    20. Muhammad Naveed Tahir, 2011. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate and Financial Globalization," Working Papers halshs-00646601, HAL.
    21. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Ardakani, Omid & Kishor, Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2015. "On the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Semiparametric Approach," MPRA Paper 75091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Nora Lustig & Jaime Ros, 2011. "Latin America's Economic Challenges: Lessons for Emerging Economies," Working Papers 1112, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    24. A. R. Pagan & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Luis Catão, 2008. "Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2008/191, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Rodrigo Valdés P., 2007. "Policy Responses to Sudden Stops in Capital Flows: The Case Of Chile In 1998," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 430, Central Bank of Chile.

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