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Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries

Author Info

  • Juan Carlos Berganza

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Carmen Broto

    ()

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

Emerging economies with inflation targets (IT) face a dilemma between fulfilling the theoretical conditions of "strict IT", which imply a fully flexible exchange rate, or applying a "flexible IT", which entails a de facto managed floating exchange rate with FX interventions to moderate exchange rate volatility. Using a panel data model for 37 countries we find that, although IT lead to higher exchange rate instability than alternative regimes, FX interventions in some IT countries have been more effective to lower volatility than in non-IT countries, which may justify the use of "flexible IT" by policymakers.

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Paper provided by Banco de España & Working Papers Homepage in its series Working Papers with number 1105.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1105
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Keywords: inflation targeting; exchange rate volatility; foreign exchange interventions; emerging economies;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
  • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
  • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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Cited by:

  1. Carmen Broto, 2012. "The effectiveness of forex interventions in four Latin American countries," Working Papers 1226, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  2. Marco Airaudo & Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/55, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
  4. Runchana Pongsaparn & Panda Ketruangroch & Dhanaporn Hirunwong, 2012. "Monetary Policy conduct in Review: The Appropriate Choice of Instruments," Working Papers 2012-05, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  5. Moura, Marcelo L. & Pereira, Fatima R. & Attuy, Guilherme de Moraes, 2013. "Currency Wars in Action: How Foreign Exchange Interventions Work in an Emerging Economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_304, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  6. Marc Pourroy, 2013. "Inflation-Targeting and Foreign Exchange Interventions in Emerging Economies," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13074, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  7. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
  8. Catalán-Herrera, Juan, 2016. "Foreign exchange market interventions under inflation targeting: The case of Guatemala," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-114.
  9. Pablo Pincheira, 2013. "Interventions and inflation expectations in an inflation targeting economy," BIS Working Papers 427, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Roberto Steiner & Adolfo Barajas & César Pabón & Leonardo Villar, 2014. "Singular Focus or Multiple Objectives? What the Data Tell Us about Inflation Targeting in Latin America," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2014), pages 177-213, June.
  11. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  12. Rathin Roy & Raquel Almeida Ramos, 2012. "IMF Article IV Reports: An Analysis of Policy Recommendations," Working Papers 86, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
  13. Cabral,Rene & Carneiro,Francisco Galrao & Mollick,Andre Varella, 2016. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7712, The World Bank.
  14. Grossmann, Axel & Love, Inessa & Orlov, Alexei G., 2014. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: A panel VAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-27.

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