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What to Target? Inflation or Exchange Rate

  • Shu Lin

    ()

    (School of Economics, Fudan University, 600 Guoquan Road, Shanghai 200433, China; shulin75@gmail.com; corresponding author)

  • Haichun Ye

    ()

    (School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 777 Guoding Road, Shanghai 200433, China)

This study empirically compares, for the first time, the popular exchange-rate–targeting regime with the recently emerged inflation-targeting framework in developing countries. Applying a variety of propensity score matching methods and dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) regressions to a sample of 50 developing countries for the years 1990–2006, we find strong and robust evidence that, compared to exchange-rate targeting, inflation targeting leads to a significantly lower inflation rate, and the lower inflation rate does not come at a cost of slower growth.

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Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 78 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 1202-1221

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:78:4:y:2012:p:1202-1221
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.southerneconomic.org/

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  1. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
  2. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 09/234, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," NBER Working Papers 6965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, 02.
  6. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
  7. Ball, Laurence, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1303-1343 Elsevier.
  8. Carlos García & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 533, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Does high inflation cause central bankers to lose their job? Evidence based on a new data set," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 778-787, December.
  10. Ammer, John & Freeman, Richard T., 1995. "Inflation targeting in the 1990s: The experiences of New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 165-192, May.
  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  12. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes1," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv226, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  13. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
  14. Carlos Eduardo S. Gonçalves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, 02.
  15. Yanliang Miao, 2009. "In Search of Successful Inflation Targeting: Evidence From An Inflation Targeting Index," IMF Working Papers 09/148, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
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