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What to Target? Inflation or Exchange Rate

  • Shu Lin


    (School of Economics, Fudan University, 600 Guoquan Road, Shanghai 200433, China;; corresponding author)

  • Haichun Ye


    (School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 777 Guoding Road, Shanghai 200433, China)

This study empirically compares, for the first time, the popular exchange-rate–targeting regime with the recently emerged inflation-targeting framework in developing countries. Applying a variety of propensity score matching methods and dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) regressions to a sample of 50 developing countries for the years 1990–2006, we find strong and robust evidence that, compared to exchange-rate targeting, inflation targeting leads to a significantly lower inflation rate, and the lower inflation rate does not come at a cost of slower growth.

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Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 78 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 1202-1221

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:78:4:y:2012:p:1202-1221
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  1. Carlos García & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 533, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, 02.
  3. Johannes M. Groeneveld, 1998. "Inflation Patterns and Monetary Policy," Books, Edward Elgar, number 1532, March.
  4. Yanliang Miao, 2009. "In Search of Successful Inflation Targeting: Evidence From An Inflation Targeting Index," IMF Working Papers 09/148, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
  6. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Does high inflation cause central bankers to lose their job? Evidence based on a new data set," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 778-787, December.
  7. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521788304 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Mishkin, F.S., 1998. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Papers 648, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  11. Carlos Eduardo S. Gonçalves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, 02.
  12. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  13. Ball, Laurence, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1303-1343 Elsevier.
  14. Ari Aisen & Francisco José Veiga, 2005. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/49, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes1," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv226, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  16. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
  17. Ammer, John & Freeman, Richard T., 1995. "Inflation targeting in the 1990s: The experiences of New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 165-192, May.
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