Need Singapore Fear Floating? A DSGE-VAR Approach
This paper uses a DSGE-VAR model to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and asks if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate with a Taylor rule inflation-targeting mechanism that uses the short term interest rate instead of the exchange rate as the benchmark monetary policy instrument. Our simulation results show that the use of a more flexible exchange rate system will reduce volatility in inflation and investment but consumption volatility will increase. Overall, there are neither signi ficant welfare gains or losses in the regime shift. Given the highly open and trade dependent nature of the Singapore economy where the policy preference is for exchange rate stability, there is no impetus to abandon the present monetary regime.
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| Length: | 26 pages |
| Date of creation: | Dec 2010 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Publication status: | Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series |
| Handle: | RePEc:siu:wpaper:29-2010 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Phone: 65-6828 0832 Fax: 65-6828 0833 Web page: http://www.economics.smu.edu.sg/ More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000.
"Fear of Floating,"
NBER Working Papers
7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sungbae An & Heedon Kang, 2011. "Oil Shocks in a DSGE Model for the Korean Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20, pages 295-321 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004.
"Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Hwee Kwan Chow, 2004. "A VAR Analysis of Singapore’s Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 19-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Michael B. Devereux, 2003. "A Tale of Two Currencies: the Asian Crisis and the Exchange Rate Regimes of Hong Kong and Singapore," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 38-54, February.
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