IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v29y2012i6p2205-2221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Naz, Farah
  • Mohsin, Asma
  • Zaman, Khalid

Abstract

Understanding the impact of exchange rate movements on prices is critical from a policy perspective in order to gauge the appropriate monetary policy response to currency movements. This study assesses the extent to which the movements in exchange rate affect domestic consumer prices in Pakistan by analyzing quarterly data from 1982 Q1 to 2010 Q4. The structural VAR (SVAR) model is used to estimate the exchange rate pass‐through to inflation in Pakistan. Further, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to measure the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. The major findings of this study are as follows: (i) the exchange rate movements have only a moderate effect on domestic prices, (ii) for consumer prices, ERPT elasticity is around 0.042 in the short run and 0.137 in the long run, (iii) up to 90% of the price level changes are explained by its own shocks in the long run. The study concludes that the effect of an exchange rate shock on domestic prices is quite gradual, taking about 14 quarters to arrive at the full impact. The immediate effect of a structural one standard deviation shock to the exchange rate (which is 0.045 increase, or 4.5% appreciation) is about 0.001 (or 0.1%) decrease in the price level. This entails an impact elasticity of 0.042. The full effect of this shock, realized after about 14 quarters, is about 0.0062 (or 0.62%) decrease in the price level. This implies a dynamic pass-through elasticity of 0.137. The result highlights the importance of other factors that play significant roles in the Pakistan's inflationary process, e.g. supply shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:2205-2221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.07.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312002337
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ITO Takatoshi & SATO Kiyotaka, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Domestic Inflation: A Comparison between East Asia and Latin American Countries," Discussion papers 07040, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Ara Volkan & Cem Saatçioðlu & Levent Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: The Turkish Experience," Working Papers 2007/6, Turkish Economic Association, revised Aug 2007.
    3. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
    4. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    5. Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 155-208, January.
    6. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    7. Ferrantino, Michael J., 2012. "Using supply chain analysis to examine the costs of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and the benefits of trade facilitation," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    8. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
    9. Nkunde Mwase, 2006. "An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania," IMF Working Papers 06/150, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    11. Ki-Ho Kim, 1998. "US inflation and the dollar exchange rate: a vector error correction model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 613-619.
    12. Cara Lown & Stavros Peristiani & Kenneth J. Robinson, 2006. "Financial Sector Weakness and the M2 Velocity Puzzle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(4), pages 699-715, October.
    13. Rubina Hassan, 2011. "The Reserve Equation and the Analytics of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 111-142, Jan-Jun.
    14. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane E. Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    16. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    17. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
    18. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    19. M. Abimbola Oyinlola & M. Adetunji Babatunde, 2009. "A Bound Testing Analysis Of Exchange Rate Pass- Through To Aggregate Import Prices In Nigeria: 1980-2006," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 97-109, December.
    20. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    21. Flamini, Alessandro, 2007. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1113-1150, November.
    22. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Elke Hahn & Marcelo Sánchez, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 84-102, November.
    23. Peter Rowland, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices: The Case Of Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 22(47), pages 106-125, December.
    24. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman & Rodrigo Valdés, 2005. "Flexible Exchange Rate with Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Issues," Research Department Publications 4427, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    25. Brun-Aguerre, Raphael & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 818-844.
    26. Anderton, Robert, 2003. "Extra-euro area manufacturing import prices and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 219, European Central Bank.
    27. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    28. Michael D. Bordo & Harold James, 2000. "The International Monetary Fund: Its Present Role in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Matthew Shapiro & Mark Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycles Fluctuations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Robert J. Vigfusson & Nathan Sheets & Joseph E. Gagnon, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through to export prices: assessing some cross-country evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 902, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    32. Rehana Siddiqui & Naeem Akhtar, 1999. "The Impact of Changes in Exchange Rate on Prices: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1059-1066.
    33. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    34. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Peter Hooper & Catherine L. Mann, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in the 1980s: The Case of U.S. Imports of Manufactures," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 297-337.
    36. Syed Abul Basher & Elsayed Mousa Elsamadisy, 2012. "Country heterogeneity and long-run determinants of inflation in the Gulf Arab states," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(2), pages 170-203, June.
    37. Raphael Auer & Thomas Chaney, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Competitive Model of Pricing-to-Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 151-175, February.
    38. Takhtamanova, Yelena F., 2010. "Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1118-1130, December.
    39. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 891-951, July.
    40. Jonas Stulz, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions," Economic Studies 2007-04, Swiss National Bank.
    41. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    42. Sushanta Mallick & Helena Marques, 2008. "Exchange Rate Transmission into Industry-Level Export Prices: A Tale of Two Policy Regimes in India," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 83-108, April.
    43. Sanusi, Aliyu Rafindadi, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ghana: Evidence from structural vector auto-regression," MPRA Paper 29491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. M. Ashraf Janjua, 2007. "Pakistan’s External Trade: Does Exchange Rate Misalignment Matter for Pakistan?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(Special E), pages 126-152, September.
    45. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2008. "Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Evidence FromUnrestricted Purchasing Power Parity Theory," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 29-56, Jan-Jun.
    46. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Hahn, Elke & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging markets," Working Paper Series 739, European Central Bank.
    47. Atif Ali Jaffri, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Does Misalignment Matter?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 19-35.
    48. Mushtaq Ahmad, 1998. "Fiscal Adjustment: Trade-offs of Macro-economic Goals and Recent Policy Reforms in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 1123-1142.
    49. Oscar Landerretche & Felipe Morandé & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbe, 1999. "Inflation Targets and Stabilization in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 55, Central Bank of Chile.
    50. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "The Effects of Foreign Exchange Movements on U.S. Domestic Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 505-511, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thanh, Su Dinh, 2015. "Threshold effects of infl ation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 41-48.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Domestic prices; Cointegration; Structural VAR; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. Recognized plagiarism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:2205-2221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.