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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan

Author

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  • Zulfiqar Hyder

    () (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Sardar Shah

    () (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

This paper assesses the extent to which the movements in exchange rate affect domestic wholesale and consumer prices in Pakistan by analyzing data from January 1988 to September 2003. The empirical model is a recursive VAR, suggested by McCarthy (2000), incorporating a distribution chain of pricing. Impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to measure the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. The major findings of this paper are: (1) the exchange rate movements have only a moderate effect on domestic prices, i.e., exchange rate pass-through is low; (2) the exchange rate pass-through is more stronger in wholesale price index (WPI) relative to consumers price index (CPI); (3) the impact of pass-through on domestic prices spreads over 12 months, however, the effect is mostly felt in the first four months; (4) the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices have further weakened after the free float of Rupee/Dollar parity in July 2000; (5) within the WPI commodity groups, the exchange rate pass-through is stronger in ‘Fuel & Lighting’ and ‘Manufactures’ groups while in the case of CPI, pass-through is more pronounced in ‘Transport & Communication’ and ‘Fuel & Lighting’ group. Furthermore, the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices is much stronger in higher inflationary environment during Jan-88 to Dec-97 relative to lower inflationary environment down the road.

Suggested Citation

  • Zulfiqar Hyder & Sardar Shah, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 05, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Madhavi Bokil & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 341-368.
    2. Khalid Mushtaq & Abdul Ghafoor & Abedullah & Farhan Ahmad, 2011. "Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 95-110, Jan-Jun.
    3. Zulfiqar Hyder & Muhammad Mazhar Khan, 2007. "Monetary Conditions Index for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 3, pages 165-190.
    4. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    5. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202.
    6. Muhammad Arif, 2007. "Developing Bond Market in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 3, pages 129-157.
    7. Suresh Ramakrishnan & Shamaila Butt & Melati Ahmad Anuar, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic, Oil Prices and Socio-economic Factors on Exchange Rate in Pakistan: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 489-499.
    8. Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño & Pablo Hernán Mendieta Ossio, 2006. "Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada: el caso de Bolivia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-39, enero-mar.
    9. Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Bushra Naqvi & Sayyid Salman Rizavi, 2012. "What Does Pakistan Have to Join the Inflation Targeters’ Club—a Royal Flush or a Seven-Deuce Offsuit?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 35-62, July-Dec.
    10. Moinuddin, 2007. "Choice of Monetary Policy Regime: Should SBP Adopt Inflation Targeting," SBP Working Paper Series 19, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    11. Fizza Malik, 2016. "Modeling Dynamics of Exchange Rates Volatility: A Case of Pakistan from 1980-2010," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 144-161, September.
    12. Muhammad Aslam Chaudhry & Munir A. S. Choudhary, 2006. "Why the State Bank of Pakistan should not Adopt Inflation Targeting," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 195-209.
    13. Doojav, Gan-Ochir, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in Mongolia," MPRA Paper 72140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2009.
    14. Khemiri, Rim & Ali, Mohamed Sami Ben, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation dynamics in Tunisia: A Markov-switching approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-30.
    15. Besnik Fetai, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Transition Economies: The Case of the Republic of Macedonia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1014, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    16. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2017. "The relevance and relative robustness of sources of inflation bias in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 283-303.
    17. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prices; exchange rate;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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