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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Zulfiqar Hyder

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Sardar Shah

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

This paper assesses the extent to which the movements in exchange rate affect domestic wholesale and consumer prices in Pakistan by analyzing data from January 1988 to September 2003. The empirical model is a recursive VAR, suggested by McCarthy (2000), incorporating a distribution chain of pricing. Impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to measure the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. The major findings of this paper are: (1) the exchange rate movements have only a moderate effect on domestic prices, i.e., exchange rate pass-through is low; (2) the exchange rate pass-through is more stronger in wholesale price index (WPI) relative to consumers price index (CPI); (3) the impact of pass-through on domestic prices spreads over 12 months, however, the effect is mostly felt in the first four months; (4) the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices have further weakened after the free float of Rupee/Dollar parity in July 2000; (5) within the WPI commodity groups, the exchange rate pass- through is stronger in ‘Fuel & Lighting’ and ‘Manufactures’ groups while in the case of CPI, pass-through is more pronounced in ‘Transport & Communication’ and ‘Fuel & Lighting’ group. Furthermore, the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices is much stronger in higher inflationary environment during Jan-88 to Dec-97 relative to lower inflationary environment down the road.

Suggested Citation

  • Zulfiqar Hyder & Sardar Shah, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan," Macroeconomics 0510021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0510021
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    2. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    3. M. Aynul Hasan & Ashfaque H. Khan & Hafiz A. Pasha & M. Ajaz Rasheed, 1995. "What Explains the Current High Rate of Inflation in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 927-943.
    4. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
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    6. Ki-Ho Kim, 1998. "US inflation and the dollar exchange rate: a vector error correction model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 613-619.
    7. Mr. Ashok Bhundia, 2002. "An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2002/165, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Pass-through; Domestic Prices; Impulse Response Function; Variance Decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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