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An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania

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  • Miss Nkunde Mwase

Abstract

The paper examines the effect of exchange rate changes on consumer prices in Tanzania using structural vector autoregression (VAR) models. Using a data set covering the period 1990-2005, we find that the exchange rate pass-through to inflation declined in the late 1990s despite the depreciation of the currency. This could be partly attributed to the macroeconomic and structural reforms that were implemented during this period. The decline in the pass-through does not necessarily imply that exchange rate fluctuations are less significant in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. The recent increase in the share of imports in the economy suggests that the pass-through could rise over the medium term. The findings imply that the authorities should remain vigilant in assessing the potential impact of foreign prices on the dynamics of inflation in Tanzania. In this regard, the authorities should seek to maintain low and stable inflation and continue the ongoing structural reforms designed to improve efficiency and increase competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2006. "An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania," IMF Working Papers 2006/150, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/150
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    Cited by:

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    2. Diby François Kassi & Dilesha Nawadali Rathnayake & Akadje Jean Roland Edjoukou & Yobouet Thierry Gnangoin & Pierre Axel Louembe & Ning Ding & Gang Sun, 2019. "Asymmetry in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: New Perspective from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, January.
    3. Sylvia Beatriz Guillermo Peón & Martín Alberto Rodríguez Brindis, 2014. "Analyzing the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mexico: Evidence Post Inflation Targeting Implementation," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(74), pages 18-35, June.
    4. Grace Ofori-Abebrese & George Kwesi Walanyo Azumah & Robert Becker Pickson, 2017. "Public Sector Wage and Inflation in Ghana," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(6), pages 561-572, June.
    5. Abdullah Almounsor, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in Yemen: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2010/144, International Monetary Fund.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Tunisia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/319, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Azwifaneli I. Nemushu, 2016. "Rand volatility and inflation in South Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(6), pages 8-20, December.
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    9. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Uganda and Rwanda: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/036, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jiang, Jiadan & Kim, David, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 900-912.
    11. Chatri, Abdellatif & Maarouf, Abdelwahab & Ragbi, Aziz, 2016. "Pass-through du taux de change aux prix au Maroc [An empirical investigation of the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Morocco]," MPRA Paper 71757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
    13. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 1-11, October.
    14. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "The Effects of Inflation Targeting on Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: A Case Study of South Africa," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(6), pages 1-4.
    15. Sanusi, Aliyu Rafindadi, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ghana: Evidence from structural vector auto-regression," MPRA Paper 29491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mr. Kenji Moriyama, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 2008/189, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ahmed Mohammed, Abdullahi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass Through into Consumer Price Inflation in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 86515, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Oct 2016.
    18. Mr. Ivohasina F Razafimahefa, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and its Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2012/141, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Ganbold, Batzorig & Akram, Iqra & Fahrozi Lubis, Raisal, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility: A forecasting approach of using the ARCH family along with ARIMA SARIMA and semi-structural-SVAR in Turkey," MPRA Paper 84447, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.

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