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Analyzing the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mexico: Evidence Post Inflation Targeting Implementation

Listed author(s):
  • Sylvia Beatriz Guillermo Peón

    ()

  • Martín Alberto Rodríguez Brindis

This paper presents an analysis of the exchange rate pass-through mechanism for the Mexican economy after the formal adoption of inflation targeting policy. In particular, this research work analyzes how a change in the nominal exchange rate depreciation is transmitted to domestic prices along the distribution chain of pricing. The analysis is carried out using a recursive Structural Vector Autorregression with exogenous variables (recursive SVAR-X) model, which aims at the estimation of structural impulse-response-functions as a tool to analyze the degree and speed of the effect of exchange rate depreciation changes on domestic prices. Additionally, variance decompositions are computed to capture the relative importance of exchange rate depreciation shocks in explaining inflation fluctuations. Our results show that, for the period of analysis (after the formal adoption of inflation targeting in Mexico), the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is quite small and fast and exchange rate surprises are not relevant to explain consumer price inflation variation.

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Article provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its journal Ensayos sobre Política Económica.

Volume (Year): 32 (2014)
Issue (Month): 74 (Junio)
Pages: 18-35

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:32:y:2014:i:74:p:18-35
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  1. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
  2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  3. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
  4. Nkunde Mwase, 2006. "An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania," IMF Working Papers 06/150, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  6. Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "An Introductory Review of a Structural VAR-X Estimation and Applications," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009200, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  8. Armando Baqueiro & Alejandro Díaz de León & Alberto Torres, 2003. "¿Temor a la flotación o a la inflación? La importancia del “traspaso” del tipo de cambio a los precios," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 21(44), pages 64-94, Diciembre.
  9. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  10. Peter Rowland, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: the Case of Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(47), pages 106-125, Diciembre.
  11. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
  12. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, 02.
  13. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2010. "Price adjustment and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 181-200, February.
  14. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.
  15. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Faruqee, Hamid & Hakura, Dalia S., 2005. "Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 349-374, March.
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