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Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Evidence FromUnrestricted Purchasing Power Parity Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Arshad Khan

    (Senior Research Economist, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Registrar, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

The main focus of this paper is to measure the speed of adjustment of the exchange rate by means of the persistent profile approach developed by Pesaran and Shin (1996) to examine the symmetry and proportionality assumptions of the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates for the Pak-rupee vis-à-vis the US-dollar exchange rate over the period 1982Q2-2005Q4. Using cointegration and vector error-correction modeling approaches, we find considerable support for the validity of weak-form PPP in Pakistan. Furthermore, the symmetry and proportionality assumptions of PPP are not verified. In the short-run, the exchange rate and foreign prices play a significant role in the convergence process to achieve long-run equilibrium. However, the speed of adjustment is very slow and the persistence profiles suggest that almost4-5 years are required to eliminate deviations and bring the nominal exchange rate in line with the long-run equilibrium path.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Arshad Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2008. "Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Evidence FromUnrestricted Purchasing Power Parity Theory," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 29-56, Jan-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:13:y:2008:i:1:p:29-56
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Madeira, Makharam & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does the purchasing power parity theory hold for Malaysia ?," MPRA Paper 100017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Saima Nawaz, 2018. "Does Pak-Rupee Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Fundamentals? A Structural Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 175-202.
    3. Syed Shujaat AHMED & Abdul QAYYUM, 2016. "The Effect of Oil Prices and Regime Switches On Real Effective Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Markov Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 643-661, December.
    4. Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
    5. Suresh Ramakrishnan & Shamaila Butt & Melati Ahmad Anuar, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic, Oil Prices and Socio-economic Factors on Exchange Rate in Pakistan: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 489-499.
    6. Arsalan FARID* & Alvina Sabah IDREES*, 2014. "PAKISTANS TRADE PATTERNS WITH CHINA AND UAE:Application of Purchasing Power Parity Theory," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 24(1), pages 75-86.
    7. Hafsa Hina & Abdul Qayyum, 2015. "Re-estimation of Keynesian Model by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 123-145.
    8. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2013. "Estimation of Keynesian Exchange Rate Model of Pakistan by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," MPRA Paper 52611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Olujobi, Khalilat & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Does the purchasing power parity theory hold for the exchange rate between the USA and Malaysia ?," MPRA Paper 110332, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Purchasing Power Parity; Cointegration; Vector Error Correction; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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