Estimation of Keynesian Exchange Rate Model of Pakistan by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors
This study employs the Mundell and Fleming (1963) traditional flow model of exchange rate to examine the long run behavior of rupee/US $ for Pakistan economy over the period 1982:Q1 to 2010:Q2.This study investigates the effect of output levels, interest rates and prices and different shocks on exchange rate. Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (HEGY) (1990) unit root test confirms the presence of non-seasonal unit root and finds no evidence of biannual and annual frequency unit root on the level of series. Johansen and Juselious (1988,1992) likelihood ratio test indicates three long-run cointegrating vectors. Cointegrating vectors are uniquely identified by imposing structural economic restrictions of purchasing power parity (PPP), uncovered interest parity (UIP) and current account balance. Finally, the short-run dynamic error correction model is estimated on the bases of identified cointegrated vectors. The speed of adjustment coefficient indicates that 17 percent of divergence from long-run equilibrium exchange rate path is being corrected in each quarter. US war on Afghanistan has significant impact on rupee in short run because of high inflows of US aid to Pakistan after 9/11.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rodolfo Helg & Massimiliano Serati, 1996.
"Does the PPP need the UIP?,"
LIUC Papers in Economics
30, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
- Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001.
"A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Paruolo, Paolo, 2002.
"Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 673-690, June.
- Paruolo, Paolo, 1997. "Asymptotic Inference on the Moving Average Impact Matrix in Cointegrated 1(1) VAR Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 79-118, February.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990.
"Seasonal integration and cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, June.
- Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000.
"Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Richard J Smith & Yongcheol Shin, 1999. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," ESE Discussion Papers 38, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Lucas, A., 1996.
"Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 9622-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 217-35, April.
- Serletis, Apostolos & King, Martin, 1997. "Common Stochastic Trends and Convergence of European Union Stock Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 44-57, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1991.
"Large shocks, small shocks, and economic fluctuations: outliers in macroeconomic times series,"
9101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1994. "Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations: Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 181-200, April-Jun.
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, June.
- Levent KORAP, 2008.
"Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach,"
Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal,
Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
- Levent, Korap, 2008. "Exchange rate determination of TL/US$: a co-integration approach," MPRA Paper 19659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Goldberg, Michael D & Frydman, Roman, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 421-35, October.
- George Tweneboah, 2009. "Relevance of Financial Markets for Exchange Rate Modeling in Ghana," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3 & 4), pages 24-36, September.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Cushman, David O., 2007. "A portfolio balance approach to the Canadian-U.S. exchange rate," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 305-320.
- Najand, Mohammad & Bond, Charlotte, 2000. "Structural models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 15-27, January.
- repec:pid:journl:v:47:y:2008:i:4:p:425-436 is not listed on IDEAS
- Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 1993.
"Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 690-95, November.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003.
"Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," International Finance Discussion Papers 714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
- Robert A. Mundell, 1962. "The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 70-79, March.
- Razzaque Bhatti & Imad Moosa, 1994. "A new approach to testing ex ante purchasing power parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(9), pages 148-151.
- Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, .
"The Monetary Approach To The Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships, Identification And Temporal Stability,"
9507, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 1998. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships, Identification and Temporal Stability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 741-766, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.