IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v44y2005i3p233-252.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the Demand for Money in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

The study estimates the dynamic demand for money (M2) function in Pakistan by employing cointegration analysis and error correction mechanism. The parameters of preferred model are found to be super-exogenous for the relevant class of interventions. It is found that the rate of inflation is an important determinant of money demand in Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the rates of interest, market rate, and bond yield are important for the long-run money demand behaviour. Since the preferred model is superexogenous, it can be used for policy analysis in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Qayyum, 2005. "Modelling the Demand for Money in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(3), pages 233-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:3:p:233-252
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume3/233-252.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
    3. Qayyum, Abdul, 1998. "Error Correction Model of the Demand for Money in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2582, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1998.
    4. M.A. Akhtar, 1974. "The Demand for Money In Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 40-54.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Akhtar Hossain, 1994. "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function for Pakistan: An Application of the Method of Cointegration," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 969-983.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    9. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
    10. Annick Bruggeman, 2000. "The Stability of Emu‐wide Money Demand Functions and the Monetary Policy Strategy of the European Central Bank," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(2), pages 184-202, March.
    11. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
    12. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    13. Mike Artis & Andreas Beyer, 2004. "Issues in Money Demand: The Case of Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 717-736, November.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    15. Abdul Qayyum, 2001. "Sectoral Analysis of the Demand for Real Money Balances in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 953-966.
    16. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100, Elsevier.
    17. SHAHEENA NISAR & NAHEED AsLAM, 1983. "The Demand for Money and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 97-116.
    18. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2000. "The representative household’s demand for money in a cointegrated VAR model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 162-176.
    19. Daniel L. Thornton, 1983. "Why does velocity matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 65(Dec), pages 5-13.
    20. Hall, Alastair, 1994. "Testing for a unit root in time series using instrumental variable estimators with pretest data based model selection (vol. 54 (1992) pp. 223-250)," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 321-321.
    21. AsHFAQUE H. KHAN, 1980. "The Demand for Money in Pakistan. Some Further Results," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 25-50.
    22. Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 605-628, December.
    23. Ahmad, Mushtaq & Khan, Ashfaque H., 1990. "A reexamination of the stability of the demand for money in pakistan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 307-321.
    24. Cuthbertson, Keith & Taylor, Mark P., 1990. "Money demand, expectations, and the forward-looking model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 289-315.
    25. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece.
    26. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2004. "Identifying, estimating and testing restricted cointegrated systems: An overview," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 440-465, November.
    27. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    28. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    29. I. U. Mangla, 1979. "An Annual Money Demand Function for Pakistan. Some Further Results," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 21-33.
    30. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    31. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
    32. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Feltenstein & Luciana Lopes & Janet Porras Mendoza & Sally Wallace, 2013. "“The Impact of Micro-simulation and CGE modeling on Tax Reform and Tax Advice in Developing Countries”: A Survey of Alternative Approaches and an Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1309, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    2. Andrew Feltenstein & Musharraf Cyan, 2012. "A Computational General Equilibrium Approach to Sectoral Analysis for Tax Potential: An Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1226, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    3. Ambreen FATEMAH & Abdul QAYYUM, 2018. "Modeling the impact of exports on the economic growth of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 56-64, March.
    4. Muhammad Akmal & Muhammad Saleem, 2008. "Technical Efficiency of the Banking Sector in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 61-80.
    5. Muhammad Ahad, 2017. "Financial Development and Money Demand Function: Cointegration, Causality and Variance Decomposition Analysis for Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 811-824, August.
    6. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
    7. Siffat Mushtaq & Abdul Rashid & Abdul Qayyum, 2012. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 61-96.
    8. Andrew Feltenstein & Biplab DattaAuthor-Email: bdatta2@student.gsu.edu, 2018. "Broad Based Subsidies or Targeted Transfers? An Analysis of the Electricity Subsidy in Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1801, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    9. Yannick Roussel & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2021. "Measuring The Money Demand In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 27-41, March.
    10. Nadeem Ul Haque & Musleh-ud Din & Lubna Hasan, 2007. "Research at PIDE: Key Messages," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2007:2, December.
    11. Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2014. "Monetary Policy Experience of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 60855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Charles O. Manasseh & Ifeoma C. Nwakoby & Felicia C. Abada & Felix C. Alio & Ogochukwu Okanya, 2021. "Money Demand in Nigeria: Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(4), pages 308-321, April.
    13. Muhammad Qasim & Khalil Ahmad & Dr. Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Money Demand: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 1(3), pages 131-141, September.
    14. Inayat Ullah Mangla, 2011. "Reconstructing the Performance of Pakistan’s Political Economy: Another Paradigm," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 30-70, September.
    15. Muhammad Qasim & Khalil Ahmad & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Money Demand: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(1), pages 15-25, March.
    16. Andrew Feltenstein & Luciana Lopes & Janet Porras-Mendoza & Sally Wallace, 2014. "Modeling tax reform in developing countries," Chapters, in: Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), Taxation and Development: The Weakest Link?, chapter 3, pages 69-102, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. NGUYEN Huyen Diu & Wade D. Pfau, 2010. "The Determinants and Stability of Real Money Demand in Vietnam, 1999-2009," GRIPS Discussion Papers 10-14, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    18. Feltenstein, Andrew & Mejia, Carolina & Newhouse, David & Sedrakyan, Gohar, 2017. "The poverty implications of alternative tax reforms: Results from a numerical application to Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 12-31.
    19. Hanif, M Nadim & Hyder, Zulfiqar & Lodhi, M Amin Khan & Khan, Mahmood ul Hassan & Batool, Irem, 2008. "A small-size macroeconometric model for Pakistan economy," MPRA Paper 22930, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    20. Kashif Ali & Mahmood Khalid, 2019. "Sources to Finance Fiscal Deficit and Their Impact on Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 27-43.
    21. Andrew Feltenstein & Carolina Mejia, 2015. "The Poverty Implications of Alternative Tax Reforms: Some Countries Intuitive Results In an Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1506, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    22. Hafsa Hina & Abdul Qayyum, 2015. "Re-estimation of Keynesian Model by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 123-145.
    23. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2013. "Estimation of Keynesian Exchange Rate Model of Pakistan by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," MPRA Paper 52611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Abdullah, Muhammad & Chani, Muhammad Irfan & Ali, Amjad, 2012. "Determinants of Money Demand in Pakistan: Disaggregated Expenditure Approach," MPRA Paper 50977, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    25. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Exchange Rate Determination and Out of Sample Forecasting: Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 61997, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    4. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
    5. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    6. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    7. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    8. Neil Karunaratne, 1997. "High-Tech Innovation, Growth and Trade Dynamics in Australia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 151-170, April.
    9. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology I," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9618, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    10. Ulph, A., 1997. "Political institutions and the design of environmental policy in a federal system with asymmetric information," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9718, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    11. Aldrich, J., 1992. "Haavelmo's Identification Theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9218, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    12. Syed Muhammad Tariq & Kent Matthews, 1997. "The Demand for Simple-sum and Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 275-291.
    13. Ulph, A., 1993. "Environmental policy and international trade when governments and producers act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9318, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    14. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    15. Chadha, J.S. & Schellekens, P., 1998. "Utility functions for central bankers: the not so drastic quadratic," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9818, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    16. Ulph, A., 1995. "International environmental regulation when national governments act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9518, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    17. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    18. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    19. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2004. "Identifying, estimating and testing restricted cointegrated systems: An overview," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 440-465, November.
    20. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Bribery, efficiency wages and political protection," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9418, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:3:p:233-252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.