Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers
Regime-switching models, like the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model, are typically applied to time series of moderate length. Hence, the nonlinear features that these models intend to describe may be reflected in only a few observations. Conversely, neglected outliers in a linear time series of moderate length may incorrectly suggest STAR (or other) type(s of) nonlinearity. In this article, the authors propose outlier robust tests for STAR-type nonlinearity. These tests are designed such that they have a better level and power behavior than standard nonrobust tests in situations with outliers. They formally derive local and global robustness properties of the new tests. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show the practical usefulness of the robust tests. An application to several quarterly industrial production indexes illustrates that apparent nonlinearity in time series sometimes seems due to only a few outliers.
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Volume (Year): 17 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1991.
"Large shocks, small shocks, and economic fluctuations: outliers in macroeconomic times series,"
9101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1994. "Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations: Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 181-200, April-Jun.
- Peracchi, Franco, 1991.
Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 69-84, March.
- repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:20-21:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- Hoek, Henk & Lucas, Andre & van Dijk, Herman K., 1995. "Classical and Bayesian aspects of robust unit root inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 27-59, September.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207, May.
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