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Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988

Author

Listed:
  • Skalin, J.
  • Teräsvirta, T.

Abstract

The linearity of nine long Swedish macroeconomic time series, whose business cycle properties were discussed by Englund, Persson, and Svensson (1992), is tested and rejected for all but two. Non-linear (STAR) models are estimated, and their properties are investigated. Business cycle frequency variation does not seem to be constant over time for all series; it is difficult to find a 'Swedish business cycle'. Pairwise Granger non-causality tests are adapted to the STAR case, and non-causality is tested. The results point at strong temporal interactions and indicate that the functional form (linear or STAR) strongly affects the outcome of these tests.
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Suggested Citation

  • Skalin, J. & Teräsvirta, T., 1996. "Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,96, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199696
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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