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The Effect of Oil Prices and Regime Switches on Real Effective Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Markov Regime Switching Approach

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  • Syed Ahmed, Shujaat
  • Qayyum, Abdul

Abstract

This study takes into the account relationship between oil prices and real effective exchange rate by using different exchange rate regimes in Pakistan. In this study following (Meese and Rogoff, 1988) and (Throop,1993) Interest Rate Parity has been used to construct a model by using real effective exchange rate, Dubai crude oil price and interest rate differential from period of 1970m01 to 2014m03. Through examining the results all variables are found to be integrated of order one. The long run relationship has been examined between real effective exchange rate and Dubai crude oil price in case of all exchange rate regimes with the use of regime dummies and interaction terms except for no regime, two-tier exchange rate regime and unified exchange rate regime. Similarly between real effective exchange rate and interest rate differential long run relationship has been examined in all the exchange rate regimes. Long run and dynamic result has also been detected except for interest rate differential with the use of exogenous exchange rate regime dummies. Oil price impacting exchange rate positively in both long and short run, while interest rate differential negatively effects exchange rate in long run. Through examining the results for impact of exchange rate regime switching on exchange rate, during 1970-2000 structural shifts were causing the change in exchange rate regimes with depreciation being high during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Ahmed, Shujaat & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "The Effect of Oil Prices and Regime Switches on Real Effective Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Markov Regime Switching Approach," MPRA Paper 66872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66872
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    2. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
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    5. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2010. "The impact of real oil price on real effective exchange rate: The case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 33493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    10. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-948, September.
    11. Adrian W. Throop, 1993. "A generalized uncovered interest parity model of exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2008. "Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Evidence FromUnrestricted Purchasing Power Parity Theory," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 29-56, Jan-Jun.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest Rate Rarity; Exchange Rate Regime; Regime Switching; Structural Shift; Cointegration; Monthly Unit Root;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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