IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ers/journl/vxvy2012i2p137-146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Evaluation of the USD Currency and the Oil Prices: A Var Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Eleftherios J. Thalassinos
  • Evagelos D. Politis

Abstract

Dollar devaluation creates a huge problem in the world oil industry, leading to a vast decrease in the revenues of the oil producers, though the local oil producers use the local currencies to operate and the oil price is evaluated in dollars. The depreciation of the US dollar reduces the effect of the high prices in oil, making it rather cheap for all the countries and especially for the Eurozone area. The record high exchange rate of the Euro vis-à-vis dollar followed by a subsequent high of the crude oil price, suggests on a relation between the price of the oil and the evaluation of the US dollar. The main aim of this research is to construct an restricted Vector Autoregressive estimation model to simulate the relation between the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and Euro against the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices for light crude oil, in connection with the impulse response of the prices to the various shocks. Lastly, a co integration test will illuminate the possibility of simultaneous long term integration along with Granger causality test to estimate the direction of causality in variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleftherios J. Thalassinos & Evagelos D. Politis, 2012. "The Evaluation of the USD Currency and the Oil Prices: A Var Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 137-146.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:2:p:137-146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ersj.eu/repec/ers/papers/12_2_p9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    2. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Daniel, Betty C., 1998. "Long-run equilibrium real exchange rates and oil prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 231-238, February.
    3. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Mignon, Valerie & Penot, Alexis, 2007. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, pages 5795-5805.
    4. Eleftherios J. Thalassinos & Evagelos D. Politis, 2011. "International Stock Markets: A Co-integration Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 113-130.
    5. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1996. "Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 69-87.
    6. Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.
    7. Adrian W. Throop, 1993. "A generalized uncovered interest parity model of exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    8. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    9. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    10. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    14. Sadorsky, Perry, 2000. "The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-266, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:2:p:137-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marios Agiomavritis). General contact details of provider: http://www.ersj.eu/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.