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A generalized uncovered interest parity model of exchange rates

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  • Adrian W. Throop

Abstract

Sticky price monetary models of exchange rates, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. Out-of-sample predictions have been little or no better than those from a naive model of no change. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future equilibrium real exchange rate weaken the stability of the association between exchange rates and the real interest rate differentials. This study identifies three types of shocks that appear to be empirically important. These are productivity growth, which changes the relative price of traded goods at home versus abroad, government budget deficits, and the real price of oil. ; These factors along with real interest rates are shown to explain at least 80 percent of the longer run variation in both the trade-weighted dollar and bilateral rates against the dollar. An error correction model that includes these factors is shown to have out-of-sample prediction errors for changes in the trade-weighted dollar that are 30 to 45 percent lower than those from a naive model of no change, at horizons of four to eight quarters. The prediction errors for bilateral rates against the dollar are almost as low.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian W. Throop, 1993. "A generalized uncovered interest parity model of exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1993:p:3-16:n:2
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
    2. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2016. "Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 147-157.
    3. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2014. "Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the GBP-USD equilibrium real exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 242-256.
    4. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Mignon, Valerie & Penot, Alexis, 2007. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5795-5805, November.
    5. Zhou, Su & Mahdavi, Saeid, 1996. "Simple vs. generalized interest rate and purchasing power parity models of exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 197-218.
    6. repec:spr:eurasi:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40821-016-0058-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    8. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.
    9. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1999. "Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Syed Shujaat AHMED & Abdul QAYYUM, 2016. "The Effect of Oil Prices and Regime Switches On Real Effective Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Markov Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 643-661, December.
    11. Hammami Algia & Bouri Abdelfatteh, 2016. "The Volatility of Oil Prices: What Factors?," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 98-110, March.
    12. repec:ejn:ejefjr:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:84-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Charlot, Philippe & Marimoutou, Vêlayoudom, 2014. "On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 456-467.
    14. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1996. "Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 69-87.
    15. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2006. "Co-integrating currencies and yield differentials," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 159-175.
    16. M. Ariff & A. Zarei, 2016. "Exchange Rate Behavior of Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 341-357, April.
    17. Hyeyoen Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rate from Combination Taylor Rule Fundamental," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 81-92, September.
    18. Eleftherios J. Thalassinos & Evagelos D. Politis, 2012. "The Evaluation of the USD Currency and the Oil Prices: A Var Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 137-146.
    19. Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.
    20. Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Les liens entre les fluctuations du prix du pétrole et du taux de change du dollar," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 187-195.
    21. Adrian W. Throop, 1994. "International financial market integration and linkages of national interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-18.

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