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Analyzing time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets

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  • Muhammad Shahbaz
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari
  • Mohammad Iqbal Tahir

Abstract

This study analyzed the time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate for Pakistan by using measures of continuous wavelet such as wavelet power, cross-wavelet power, and cross-wavelet coherency (WTC). The results of cross-wavelet analysis indicated that covariance between oil price and exchange rate is unable to give clear-cut results, but both variables have been in phase and out phase (i.e. they are anti-cyclical and cyclical in nature) in some or other durations. However, results of squared wavelet coherence disclose that both variables are out of phase and real exchange rate was leading during the entire period studied, corresponding to the 10-15 months' scale . These results are the unique contribution of the present study, which would have not been drawn if one would have utilized any other time series or frequency domain-based approach. This finding provides evidence of anti-cyclical relationship between oil price and real effective exchange rate; however, in most of the period studied, real exchange rate was leading and passing anti-cycle effects on oil price shocks which is the major contribution of the study.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohammad Iqbal Tahir, 2015. "Analyzing time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 690-704, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:4:p:690-704
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2014.980784
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    2. Farouk, Faizal & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Are there profit (returns) in Shariah-compliant exchange traded funds? The multiscale propensity," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 360-375.
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    8. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Zhang, Huimin & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Interdependence of foreign exchange markets: A wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 6-14.
    9. Tokic, Damir, 2015. "The 2014 oil bust: Causes and consequences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 162-169.
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    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Oil price and exchange rate in India: Fresh evidence from continuous wavelet approach and asymmetric, multi-horizon Granger-causality tests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 272-283.
    15. Fernando Vadillo, 2016. "On the Historical Exchange Rates Euro/US Dollar," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 463-472, October.

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