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Factors Affecting the Nominal Exchange Rate of Pakistan: An Econometric Investigation (1982-2008)

Author

Listed:
  • Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak

    (Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Peshawar, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Tariq

    (Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan)

  • Jangraiz Khan

    (Institute of Management Studies, University of Peshawar, Pakistan)

Abstract

Which macroeconomic factors determine the nominal exchange rate of Pak-rupee against US dollar during the period 1982-2008? This issue has been investigated in this paper by using Ordinary Least Squares and Johansen’s Cointegration techniques. The results show that both monetary and real factors i.e. money supply, trade balance, foreign exchange reserves, inflation and interest rate have long run relationship with the exchange rate of Pak-rupee. However, the granger causality test results show that the relationship between most of the macroeconomic variables and nominal exchange rate bi-directional.

Suggested Citation

  • Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq & Jangraiz Khan, 2012. "Factors Affecting the Nominal Exchange Rate of Pakistan: An Econometric Investigation (1982-2008)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 421-428, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:2012:p:421-428
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    3. Eisa Aleisa & Sel Dibooĝlu, 2002. "Sources of real exchange rate movements in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 101-110, March.
    4. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-539, August.
    5. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "What determines European real exchange rates?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 46, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
    7. Jose Sanchez-Fung, 2003. "Non-linear modelling of daily exchange rate returns, volatility, and 'news' in a small developing economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 247-250.
    8. Richard K. Lyons, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Volume: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?," NBER Chapters,in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 183-208 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-698, August.
    10. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2003. "Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 371-398, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Suresh Ramakrishnan & Shamaila Butt & Melati Ahmad Anuar, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic, Oil Prices and Socio-economic Factors on Exchange Rate in Pakistan: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 489-499.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohammad Iqbal Tahir, 2015. "Analyzing time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 690-704, April.

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