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Does oil price variability affect ASEAN exchange rates? Evidence from panel cointegration test

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  • Khalid M. Kisswani

Abstract

Using panel data, this article investigates the long-run relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates for selected ASEAN countries by utilizing quarterly data from 1973:Q1 to 2013:Q4. The modelling implementation starts with the determination of the stationarity condition of the variables which are found to be integrated of order one. Using Maddala and Wu’s (1999) panel cointegration test, the article finds evidence of cointegration among the variables. The fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) are then used to estimate the long-run relationship between the variables, followed by applying Toda--Yamamoto causality test. The findings exhibit bidirectional causality between real oil prices and real exchange rates in the long run, where it is highly significant.

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  • Khalid M. Kisswani, 2016. "Does oil price variability affect ASEAN exchange rates? Evidence from panel cointegration test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(20), pages 1831-1839, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:20:p:1831-1839
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1109040
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    4. Jungho Baek & Yoon Jung Choi, 2021. "Do fluctuations in crude oil prices have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the real exchange rate? Empirical evidence from Indonesia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 312-325, January.
    5. Pham, Thai-Binh & Sala, Hector, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price and risk-premium shocks on Vietnam: Evidence from an over-identifying SVAR analysis," MPRA Paper 96873, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2019.
    6. Baek, Jungho, 2021. "A new look at the oil price-exchange rate nexus: Asymmetric evidence from selected OPEC member countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 172-181.
    7. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mahelet G. Fikru, 2023. "A Review of Econometric Approaches for the Oil Price-Exchange Rate Nexus: Lessons for ASEAN-5 Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, April.
    8. Alam, Md. Samsul & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ferrer, Román, 2019. "Causal flows between oil and forex markets using high-frequency data: Asymmetries from good and bad volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Mensah, Lord & Obi, Pat & Bokpin, Godfred, 2017. "Cointegration test of oil price and us dollar exchange rates for some oil dependent economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 304-311.
    10. Benjamin Ighodalo Ehikioya & Alexander Ehimare Omankhanlen & Ayopo Abiola Babajide & Godswill Osagie Osuma & Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero, 2020. "Oil Price Fluctuations and Exchange Rate in Selected Sub-Saharan Africa countries: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 242-249.
    11. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    12. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2017. "The impacts of the oil price fall on the exchange rates of ASEAN-5: Evidence from the 2014 oil price shock," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 468-479.
    13. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2023. "Cross-spectral coherence and co-movement between WTI oil price and exchange rate of Thai Baht," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Baek, Jungho, 2023. "Supply and demand shocks in the global oil market: How much do they matter for exchange rates in OPEC members?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Zhang, Xiang & Baek, Jungho, 2022. "The role of oil price shocks on exchange rates for the selected Asian countries: Asymmetric evidence from nonlinear ARDL and generalized IRFs approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    16. Habimana, Olivier, 2016. "Oil price, exchange rate and consumer price co-movement: A continuous-wavelet analysis," MPRA Paper 71886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Elian, Mohammad I., 2021. "Analyzing the (a)symmetric impacts of oil price, economic policy uncertainty, and global geopolitical risk on exchange rate," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    18. Changyu Liu & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Saqib Farid & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Oil as Hedge, Safe-Haven, and Diversifier for Conventional Currencies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    19. Jungho Baek & Yoon Jung Choi, 2020. "Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea‐ASEAN commodity trade data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 250-278, September.

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