The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models
The US dollar is used as the primary currency of international crude oil trading; as such, the recent substantial depreciation in the US dollar has resulted in a corresponding increase in crude oil prices. In addition, oil price and exchange-rate returns have been shown to be skewed and leptokurtic, and to exhibit an asymmetric or tail dependence structure. Therefore, this study proposes dynamic copula-based GARCH models to explore the dependence structure between the oil price and the US dollar exchange rate. More importantly, an asset-allocation strategy is implemented to evaluate economic value and confirm the efficiency of the copula-based GARCH models. In terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance, a dynamic strategy based on the CGARCH model with the Student-t copula exhibits greater economic benefits than static and other dynamic strategies. In addition, the positive feedback trading activities are statistically significant within the oil market, but this information does not enhance the economic benefits from the perspective of an asset-allocation decision. Finally, a more risk-averse investor generates a higher fee for switching from a static strategy to a dynamic strategy based on copula-based GARCH models.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2003.
"Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 435-457, September.
- GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, "undated". "Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1682, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2003. "Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2003028, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2004. "The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 783-799, September.
- Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-425, March.
- Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
- Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," RCER Working Papers 322, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's GARCH models with time-varying t-densities," Statistical Software Components RTZ00086, Boston College Department of Economics.
- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fan, Ying & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3156-3171, November.
- Joe, Harry, 2005. "Asymptotic efficiency of the two-stage estimation method for copula-based models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 401-419, June.
- Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2009. "Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 597-615, October.
- Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
- Bekiros, S. & Diks, C.G.H., 2007. "The Relationship between Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices: Cointegration, Linear and Nonlinear Causality," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
- Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2008. "Oil price Dynamics and Speculation. A Multivariate Financial Approach," Working Papers - Economics wp2008_15.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & McAleer, Michael, 2006. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations in WTI oil forward and futures returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 114-132, June.
- Matteo Manera & Alessandro Lanza & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Modelling Dynamic Conditional Correlations in WTI Oil Forward and Futures Returns," Working Papers 2004.72, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
- Yufeng Han, 2006. "Asset Allocation with a High Dimensional Latent Factor Stochastic Volatility Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 237-271.
- Q. Farooq Akram, 2004. "Oil prices and exchange rates: Norwegian evidence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 476-504, December.
- Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "A Simultaneous Equations Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/32, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
- Andrew Patton, 2004. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," Working Papers wp04-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March.
- Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:270-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.