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Trading-hour and nontrading-hour volatility in crude oil and U.S. dollar markets and its implications for portfolio optimization

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  • Lai, Yu-Sheng

Abstract

The covariance between crude oil prices and U.S. dollar exchange rates is crucial for energy investors, and stock prices differ between trading and nontrading hours. Thus, the present study uses a two-component generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to analyze whole-day returns. Our analysis of data from 2007 to 2021 reveals that trading-hour and nontrading-hour returns contain crucial information for modeling whole-day covariance. Additionally, out-of-sample portfolio comparisons indicate that a two-component model is more effective than simpler models for portfolio optimization, resulting in substantial basis point fees when switching from the static to the two-component model. Crucially, the economic value generated by the two-component model is not offset by reasonable transaction costs; more risk-averse investors can generate higher benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Lai, Yu-Sheng, 2025. "Trading-hour and nontrading-hour volatility in crude oil and U.S. dollar markets and its implications for portfolio optimization," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:38:y:2025:i:c:s2405851325000236
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100479
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil prices; Forecast evaluations; Intraday volatility; Overnight volatility; Portfolio optimization; U.S. dollar exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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