IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ukc/ukcedp/0812.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China's Exports and the Oil Price

Author

Listed:
  • Joao Ricardo Faria
  • Andre Varella Mollick
  • Pedro H. Albuquerque
  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma

    ()

Abstract

The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik (2006)’s measure of export competitiveness, together with the oil price, productivity, real exchange rate, and foreign industrial production over the monthly 1992-2005 period. The results suggest a stable relationship and yields slightly positive values for the price of oil and elastic coefficients for export competitiveness, along with the expected negative elasticity for the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Ricardo Faria & Andre Varella Mollick & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "China's Exports and the Oil Price," Studies in Economics 0812, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0812
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/0812.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaolan Fu, 2005. "Exports, technical progress and productivity growth in a transition economy: a non-parametric approach for China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 725-739.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A quantitative assessment of real and financial integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 281-303.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "Ownership and Control in Outsourcing to China: Estimating the Property-Rights Theory of the Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 729-761.
    4. Zhang Xiaodi & Li Xiaozhong, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Comparative Advantage of Chinese Foreign Trade Products," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 38-61, January.
    5. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What’s So Special about China’s Exports?," Working Papers id:410, eSocialSciences.
    7. Xu, Yingfeng, 2000. "China's exchange rate policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 262-277.
    8. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What's So Special about China's Exports?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19.
    9. Xiaolan Fu & V. N. Balasubramanyam, 2005. "Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Employment: The Case of China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 607-625, April.
    10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "Dimensions of financial integration in Greater China: money markets, banks and policy effects," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 117-132.
    11. Yih-Chyi Chuang & Pi-Fum Hsu, 2004. "FDI, trade, and spillover efficiency: evidence from China's manufacturing sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1103-1115.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    13. David Roland-Holst & John Weiss, 2005. "People's Republic of China and its Neighbours: evidence on regional trade and investment effects," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 19, pages 18-35, November.
    14. Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2007. "The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-416.
    15. Ingrid H. Rima, 2004. "China's trade reform: Verdoorn's Law married to Adam Smith's "vent for surplus" principle," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 729-744.
    16. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
    17. Mollick, Andre Varella & Wvalle-Vazquez, Karina, 2006. "Chinese competition and its effects on Mexican maquiladoras," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 130-145, March.
    18. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Wang, Tao, 2005. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 753-771, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beirne, John & Beulen, Christian & Liu, Guy & Mirzaei, Ali, 2013. "Global oil prices and the impact of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 37-51.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Oil prices; Competitiveness; Exports; Productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0812. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tracey Girling). General contact details of provider: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.