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China's Exports and the Oil Price

Listed author(s):
  • Joao Ricardo Faria
  • Andre Varella Mollick
  • Pedro H. Albuquerque
  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma

    ()

The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik (2006)’s measure of export competitiveness, together with the oil price, productivity, real exchange rate, and foreign industrial production over the monthly 1992-2005 period. The results suggest a stable relationship and yields slightly positive values for the price of oil and elastic coefficients for export competitiveness, along with the expected negative elasticity for the real exchange rate.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/0812.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 0812.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0812
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School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP

Phone: +44 (0)1227 827497
Web page: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Xiaolan Fu, 2005. "Exports, technical progress and productivity growth in a transition economy: a non-parametric approach for China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 725-739.
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  3. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "Ownership and Control in Outsourcing to China: Estimating the Property-Rights Theory of the Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 729-761.
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  7. Xu, Yingfeng, 2000. "China's exchange rate policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 262-277.
  8. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What's So Special about China's Exports?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19.
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  10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "Dimensions of financial integration in Greater China: money markets, banks and policy effects," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 117-132.
  11. Yih-Chyi Chuang & Pi-Fum Hsu, 2004. "FDI, trade, and spillover efficiency: evidence from China's manufacturing sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1103-1115.
  12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  13. David Roland-Holst & John Weiss, 2005. "People's Republic of China and its Neighbours: evidence on regional trade and investment effects," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 19, pages 18-35, November.
  14. Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2007. "The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-416.
  15. Ingrid H. Rima, 2004. "China's trade reform: Verdoorn's Law married to Adam Smith's "vent for surplus" principle," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 26(4), pages 729-744, October.
  16. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
  17. Mollick, Andre Varella & Wvalle-Vazquez, Karina, 2006. "Chinese competition and its effects on Mexican maquiladoras," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 130-145, March.
  18. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Wang, Tao, 2005. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 753-771, December.
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