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The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries

  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Yeongseop Rhee
  • Hui Tong

We analyze the impact of China's growth on the exports of other Asian countries. Our innovation is to distinguish the increase in China's demand for imports from its increased penetration of export markets. Using the gravity model, we disaggregate among commodity types and account for the endogeneity of Chinese exports. We confirm the tendency for China's exports to crowd out the exports of other Asian countries. But this effect is felt mainly in markets for consumer goods and hence by less-developed Asian countries, not in markets for capital goods or by the more advanced Asian economies for which machinery and equipment are a significant fraction of exports. At the same time, there has been a strong tendency for a rapidly growing China to suck in imports from its Asian neighbors. But this effect is mainly felt in markets for capital goods, where China's income elasticity of import demand is highest, and thus by the more advanced Asian economies. Hence, more and less developed Asian countries are being affected very differently by China's rise.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10768.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10768
Note: ITI
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  1. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," International Finance Discussion Papers 789, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Elena Ianchovichina & Terrie Walmsley, 2005. "Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(2), pages 261-277, 04.
  4. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, S.J., 1999. "Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 418, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 03 Aug 2000.
  5. Jörg Mayer, 2003. "The Fallacy Of Composition: A Review Of The Literature," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 166, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
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