IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Has China displaced other Asian countries' exports?


  • Greenaway, David
  • Mahabir, Aruneema
  • Milner, Chris


This paper uses gravity modelling to explore whether and how the growth of China's exports is displacing exports of other Asian countries to third markets over the period 1990-2003. Chinese exports are defined both narrowly and more broadly to include exports from Hong Kong. We investigate whether the displacement effect on Asian exports differs when exports from Hong Kong and China are combined compared to the narrow case of Chinese exports only. Aggregate and disaggregated analyses are undertaken. In the latter, we explore whether the displacement effect varies across Asian countries and in trade with different types of countries. We find evidence of a displacement effect which is more pronounced in developed markets and stronger for Hong Kong and China combined. Further it is the high income Asian exporters that experienced a greater displacement effect. We also investigate whether China's development has generated any offsetting effects on its neighbours' exports to China itself and find that Chinese growth has indeed increased China's imports from the Asian countries in the sample and in particular from Japan and Korea.

Suggested Citation

  • Greenaway, David & Mahabir, Aruneema & Milner, Chris, 2008. "Has China displaced other Asian countries' exports?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 152-169, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:152-169

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
    2. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment and European Integration in the 1990s," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 99-110, January.
    3. Subhash Sharma & Soo Chua, 2000. "ASEAN: economic integration and intra-regional trade," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 165-169.
    4. Volker Nitsch, 2002. "Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 457-474, April.
    5. Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht & Christopher Pearce, 2007. "The GATT/WTO has promoted trade, but only in capital-intensive commodities!," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(12), pages 1573-1581.
    6. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
    7. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Honey, the Currency Union Effect on Trade Hasn't Blown Up," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 475-479, April.
    8. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    9. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 507-522, August.
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    12. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May.
    13. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    14. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2004. "Intermediaries in Entrepot Trade: Hong Kong Re-Exports of Chinese Goods," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 3-35, March.
    15. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters,in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, February.
    17. Yaroslav D Lissovolik & Bogdan Lissovolik, 2004. "Russia and the WTO; The "Gravity" of Outsider Status," IMF Working Papers 04/159, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Elena Ianchovichina & Terrie Walmsley, 2005. "Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(2), pages 261-277, April.
    19. F. Gerard Adams & Byron Gangnes & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2004. "How the Dragon Captured the World Export Markets: Outsourcing and Foreign Investment Lead the Way," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-042, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    20. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2001. "Trade Liberalization in China’s Accession to WTO," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 421-445.
    21. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
    22. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," Working Paper Series WP-03-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    23. Eromenko, Igor & Mankovska, Nadiya & Dean, James W, 2003. "Will WTO membership really improve market access for Ukrainian exports?," MPRA Paper 67481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    25. Shafaeddin, S. M., 2004. "Is China's accession to WTO threatening exports of developing countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 109-144, January.
    26. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Toward Shifting Wealth Phase II
      by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2012-08-10 19:06:00


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Tze-Haw Chan & Hooi Hooi Lean & Chee-Wooi Hooy, 2014. "A macro assessment of China effects on Malaysian exports and trade balances," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 18-37, January.
    2. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2010. "Can Trade with the People’s Republic of China Be an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia ," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 27(1), pages 160-181.
    3. Fu, Xiaolan & Kaplinsky, Raphael & Zhang, Jing, 2012. "The Impact of China on Low and Middle Income Countries’ Export Prices in Industrial-Country Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1483-1496.
    4. Larry D. Qiu & Chaoqun Zhan, 2016. "Special Section: China's Growing Trade and its Role to the World Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 45-71, February.
    5. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2009. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific onshore and offshore currency forwards markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 174-196, March.
    6. Nguyen, Huong, 2016. "China’s Agricultural Exports and their Effects on other Exporters," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235901, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Sun, Sizhong, 2012. "The role of FDI in domestic exporting: Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 434-441.
    8. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.
    9. Wong, Chin-Yoong & Eng, Yoke-Kee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2014. "Rising China, anxious Asia? A Bayesian New Keynesian view," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 90-106.
    10. Linda Yueh, 2010. "The Economy of China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3705.
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-458 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Baak, SaangJoon, 2014. "Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-271.
    13. Adrian Wood & Jörg Mayer, 2011. "Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(2), pages 325-350, June.
    14. Roger White, 2010. "Migration and International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13670.
    15. repec:bla:devpol:v:35:y:2017:i:6:p:797-821 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Roberts, Ivan & Rush, Anthony, 2012. "Understanding China's demand for resource imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 566-579.
    17. Edwards, Lawrence & Jenkins, Rhys, 2014. "The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 132-150.
    18. Ivan Roberts & Anthony Rush, 2010. "Sources of Chinese Demand for Resource Commodities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Athukorala, Prema-chandra, 2012. "Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 150-162.
    20. Sargent, John & Matthews, Linda, 2009. "China versus Mexico in the Global EPZ Industry: Maquiladoras, FDI Quality, and Plant Mortality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1069-1082, June.
    21. Azhar A. KM & Elliott Rob J. & Liu Junting, 2012. "Product Quality, Trade, and Adjustment: The China-ASEAN Experience," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-28, June.
    22. Lauren A. Johnston & Stephen L. Morgan & Yuesheng Wang, 2015. "The Gravity of China's African Export Promise," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 913-934, June.
    23. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    24. Yao, Shujie & Wang, Pan, 2014. "Has China displaced the outward investments of OECD countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 55-71.
    25. André Moreira Cunha & Julimar Da Silva Bichara & Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis & Julien Marcel Demeulemeester, 2016. "Brazil´S Development Pattern In A Sino-Centred World: An International Political Economy Perspective," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42ndd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 079, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:152-169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.