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Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark

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  • Matthieu Bussière

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  • Bernd Schnatz

Abstract

The rapid transition of China from a closed agricultural society to an industrial powerhouse has been associated with a rapid increase in the share of China in world trade. As the world is taking the full measure of this phenomenon, tensions have been arising ranging from holding China partly responsible for global imbalances to complaints about the “excessive” competitiveness of Chinese products. Without a quantifiable benchmark, however, such claims are difficult to judge. This paper therefore provides an assessment of China’s “natural” place in the world economy based on a new set of trade integration indicators. These indicators are used as a benchmark in order to examine whether China’s share in international trade is consistent with fundamentals such as economic size, location and other relevant factors. They constitute a better measure of trade integration that incorporates many more factors than traditional openness ratios. Results show that the model tracks international trade well and confirm that China is already well integrated in world markets, particularly with North America, several Latin American and East Asian emerging markets and most euro area countries. JEL Classification: C23, F15, F14
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  • Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2009. "Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 85-111, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:85-111 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-007-9061-5
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    1. Nazia Gul & Hafiz M. Yasin, 2011. "The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 23-62, Jan-Jun.
    2. Juan Pablo Domínguez, 2013. "Evaluating intermediate goods trade flow in the new century: stylized facts for explaining vertical specialization," ESCENARIOS: EMPRESAS Y TERRITORIO, INSTITUCION UNIVERSITARIA ESUMER, January.
    3. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, 2015. "Visible and invisible walls: World trade patterns and the end of the Cold War," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(2), pages 231-247, June.
    5. A Salim, Ruhu & Mahfuz Kabir, Mohammad, 2011. "Does More Trade Potential Remain in Arab States of the Gulf ?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 217-243.
    6. Boerner, Lars & Volckart, Oliver, 2011. "The utility of a common coinage: Currency unions and the integration of money markets in late Medieval Central Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 53-65, January.
    7. Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Tham, Siew Yean, 2013. "Trade linkages of inward and outward FDI: Evidence from Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 224-230.
    8. Estrella Gómez-Herrera, 2013. "Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1087-1111.
    9. Roberts, Ivan & Rush, Anthony, 2012. "Understanding China's demand for resource imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 566-579.
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    11. Karagoz Kadir, 2014. "Determinants Of Tourist Inflows To Romania: Evidence From Augmented Panel Gravity Model," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 347-358, July.
    12. Balasan, Andrei-Cristian, 2012. "Literature review concerning the relationship between globalization and regionalization in the world economy," MPRA Paper 39746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson & Jessica Y. Xu, 2011. "The International Effects of China’s Growth, Trade and Education Booms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(10), pages 1703-1725, October.
    14. Ivan Roberts & Anthony Rush, 2010. "Sources of Chinese Demand for Resource Commodities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Alemayehu Geda & Atnafu Meskel, 2008. "China and India's Growth Surge: Is it a curse or blessing for Africa? The Case of Manufactured Exports," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 247-272.
    16. Natalia Drzewoszewska, 2014. "Searching for the Appropriate Measure of Multilateral Trade-Resistance Terms in the Gravity Model of Bilateral Trade Flows," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 29-49.
    17. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    22. Mohammad ALAWIN & Ziad ABU-LILA, 2016. "Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
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    24. Geldi, Hatice Kerra, 2012. "Trade effects of regional integration: A panel cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1566-1570.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model; Panel data; Trade; China; C23; F15; F14;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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