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L'intégration régionale favorise-t-elle la multilatéralisation des échanges ?

  • Jérôme Trotignon

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

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    Dans les années 80 et 90, la création ou la consolidation de grands ensembles commerciaux donne un nouvel élan au processus d'intégration régionale. Dans cet article, nous nous demandons si ces ensembles favorisent ou non la multilatéralisation des échanges, et s'ils constituent donc des building ou des stumbling blocks.Dans un modèle de gravité en données de panel, nous estimons un jeu de trois variables muettes régionales représentatives du commerce intra-zone, des exportations extra-zone et des importations extra-zone. A partir des trois coefficients obtenus, nous proposons une typologie originale des créations / détournements d'échange et des blocs commerciaux. En l'appliquant à nos résultats, tous les groupes sélectionnés ainsi que l'UEM apparaissent comme des building blocks. A l'image de l'AFTA, la plupart impulsent simultanément les flux internes et les exportations, ce qui suggère la présence d'effets dynamiques favorables à la compétitivité. Aucun détournement de commerce ne se dégage à l'exception d'un détournement d'exportation induit par l'ALENA.

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    File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/33/56/33/PDF/Article-Reg-Glob-envoye-RFE-17oct.pdf
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    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00335633.

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    Date of creation: 2009
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    Publication status: Published, Revue Française d'Economie, 2009, XXIII, 3, pp. 3-28
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00335633
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00335633/en/
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