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Assessing Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia-Pacific

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Abstract

Using both a gravity model to consider the natural trading bloc hypothesis, and simulation using a CGE model to make welfare estimates, we examine the potential effect of a subset of the new RTA proposal in the APEC region. In broad terms the two approaches appear consistent in their ability to identify RTAs that are beneficial in terms of the welfare of the proposed members. However, comparison of the two alternative approaches does not lead to support for the hypothesis that natural blocs are less likely to be damaging to those economies that remain on the outside of the new proposals.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gilbert & Robert Scollay & Bijit Bora, 2011. "Assessing Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia-Pacific," Working Papers 200101, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:uth:wpaper:200101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pravin Krishna, 1998. "Regionalism and Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 227-251.
    2. Martin Richardson, 2017. "Endogenous Protection and Trade Diversion," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dimensions of Trade Policy, chapter 5, pages 107-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Kemp, Murray C. & Wan, Henry Jr., 1976. "An elementary proposition concerning the formation of customs unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-97, February.
    4. Robert Scollay & John P. Gilbert, 2001. "New Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia Pacific?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa63, October.
    5. Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
    6. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, February.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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