IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Trade Integration of Central and Eastern European Countries: Lessons from a Gravity Model

The aim of the paper is to analyse the factors behind the rapid trade integration of the Central and Eastern European countries with the euro area in the past ten years and to gauge the potential for further integration. We use as benchmark an enhanced gravity model estimated with a large sample of bilateral trade flows across 61 countries since 1980. We show that a careful examination of the fixed effects of the model is crucial for the proper interpretation of the results: simply extracting the predicted values of the regression (“in-sample”) – as commonly done in the literature – leads to distorted results as it fails to take the transition process properly into account. As an alternative, we propose a two-stage “out-of-sample” approach. The results suggest that trade integration between most of the largest Central and Eastern European countries and the euro area is already relatively advanced, while the Baltic countries as well as the South Eastern European countries still have significant scope for integration.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Working-Papers/2005/Working-Paper-105/fullversion/wp105_tcm16-36591.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 403 Forbidden. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Markus Knell and Helmut Stix)


Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 105.

as
in new window

Length: 43
Date of creation: 25 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:105
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7205
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7299
Web page: http://www.oenb.at/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
  2. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, 02.
  3. Melanie Leiner-Killinger & Christophe Madaschi & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 41, European Central Bank.
  4. Edward Christie, 2004. "Trade Flows in Southeast Europe," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 59, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  5. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The core and periphery of the world economy," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 89-106.
  6. Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  7. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Ettore Dorrucci & Itai Agur, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 40, European Central Bank.
  8. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Oli Havrylyshyn & Hassan Al-Atrash, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 98/22, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  11. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  12. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
  14. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 04/154, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  17. Hoekman, Bernard & Djankov, Simeon, 1997. "Determinants of the Export Structure of Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 471-87, September.
  18. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2001. "Distance, Trade and FDI: A Hausman-Taylor SUR Approach," WIFO Working Papers 164, WIFO.
  19. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1998. "Multinational firms and the new trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 183-203, December.
  20. Peter Egger, 2004. "Estimating regional trading bloc effects with panel data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 151-166, March.
  21. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
  22. Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," ESE Discussion Papers 105, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  23. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
  24. J. A. Hausman & W. E. Taylor, 1980. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Working papers 255, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  25. Edward Christie, 2001. "Potential Trade in Southeast Europe: A Gravity Model Approach," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 11, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  26. Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  27. Jakab, Zoltan M. & Kovacs, Mihaly A. & Oszlay, Andras, 2001. "How Far Has Trade Integration Advanced?: An Analysis of the Actual and Potential Trade of Three Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 276-292, June.
  28. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 0353, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Markus Knell and Helmut Stix)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.