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Trade Integration of Central and Eastern European Countries: Lessons from a Gravity Model

The aim of the paper is to analyse the factors behind the rapid trade integration of the Central and Eastern European countries with the euro area in the past ten years and to gauge the potential for further integration. We use as benchmark an enhanced gravity model estimated with a large sample of bilateral trade flows across 61 countries since 1980. We show that a careful examination of the fixed effects of the model is crucial for the proper interpretation of the results: simply extracting the predicted values of the regression (“in-sample”) – as commonly done in the literature – leads to distorted results as it fails to take the transition process properly into account. As an alternative, we propose a two-stage “out-of-sample” approach. The results suggest that trade integration between most of the largest Central and Eastern European countries and the euro area is already relatively advanced, while the Baltic countries as well as the South Eastern European countries still have significant scope for integration.

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Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 105.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 25 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:105
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  9. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Oleh Havrylyshyn & Hassan Al-Atrash, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 98/22, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Jakab, Zoltan M. & Kovacs, Mihaly A. & Oszlay, Andras, 2001. "How Far Has Trade Integration Advanced?: An Analysis of the Actual and Potential Trade of Three Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 276-292, June.
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  15. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 0353, European Central Bank.
  16. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6511, Inter-American Development Bank.
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  18. Edward Christie, 2004. "Trade Flows in Southeast Europe," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 000, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  19. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 04/154, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Peter Egger, 2004. "Estimating regional trading bloc effects with panel data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(1), pages 151-166, March.
  22. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The core and periphery of the world economy," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 89-106.
  23. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, 02.
  24. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
  25. Edward Christie, 2002. "Potential Trade in Southeast Europe: a Gravity Model Approach," wiiw Working Papers 21, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  26. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1998. "Multinational firms and the new trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 183-203, December.
  27. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  28. Hoekman, Bernard & Djankov, Simeon, 1997. "Determinants of the Export Structure of Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 471-87, September.
  29. Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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