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Playing Dominoes in Europe: An Empirical Analysis of the Domino Theory for the EU, 1962-2004

This paper addresses the question whether the domino theory of regionalism is a reasonable explanation for the growth in EU membership over the past forty years. In essence, this theory states that the conclusion of a new regional trade agreement or the deepening of an existing one will induce non-members to join the trade bloc. The empirical analysis proceeds in two stages. First, a gravity analysis shows that the EU was more attractive than EFTA since it triggered a higher degree of trade diversion. In a second step, a discrete choice model is used to assess the importance of variables reflecting domino effects relative to other possible determinants of EU expansion. The findings provide convincing evidence in support of the domino theory.

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File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIWP11-2006.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series IHEID Working Papers with number 11-2006.

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Length: 47
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision: Jun 2006
Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp11-2006
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  1. Mansfield, Edward D. & Reinhardt, Eric, 2003. "Multilateral Determinants of Regionalism: The Effects of GATT/WTO on the Formation of Preferential Trading Arrangements," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(04), pages 829-862, September.
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  3. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-92, December.
  5. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
  6. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 141-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Aghion, Philippe & Antras, Pol & Helpman, Elhanan, 2007. "Negotiating free trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 1-30, September.
  10. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
  11. Magee Christopher S, 2003. "Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
  12. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Ettore Dorrucci & Itai Agur, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 40, European Central Bank.
  14. Sang-Seung, Yi, 1996. "Endogenous formation of customs unions under imperfect competition: open regionalism is good," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 153-177, August.
  15. Tammy Holmes, 2005. "What Drives Regional Trade Agreements that Work?," IHEID Working Papers 07-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  16. Baldwin, Richard, 1993. "A Domino Theory of Regionalism," CEPR Discussion Papers 857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Peter Egger, . "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," WIFO Working Papers 141, WIFO.
  18. Melanie Leiner-Killinger & Christophe Madaschi & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 41, European Central Bank.
  19. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
  20. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 1997. "Technology and Bilateral Trade," NBER Working Papers 6253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro’s trade effects," Working Paper Series 0594, European Central Bank.
  22. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  23. Pédussel Wu, Jennifer, 2004. "Measuring and explaining levels of regional economic integration," ZEI Working Papers B 12-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  24. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
  25. Nilsson, Lars, 2000. "Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 807-827, November.
  26. Greenaway, David & Milner, Chris, 2002. "Regionalism and Gravity," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 574-85, December.
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