Potential Trade in Southeast Europe: a Gravity Model Approach
This paper estimates a classical gravity model for trade on aggregate trade volumes between OECD and transition countries. The results are used to analyse and make projections on trade flows into and out of Southeast European countries following scenarios on potential GDP levels and possible membership of institutions. Alternative variables are also tested, namely transport times instead of geographical distance, and GDP in PPP instead of nominal. Replacing distance with transport times does not lead to great improvements in the model's performance. The use of GDP at PPP is presented mainly to try to deal with specific situations where local prices prevail. The striking feature that emerges in Southeast Europe is of flows of extreme values, in some cases far below, but in others far above, what classical gravity model estimates show. The main conclusion is that Southeast Europe can no longer be viewed as a region from the point of view of aggregate trade flows.
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- Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003.
"Disintegration and Trade,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 353, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2001. "Disintegration and Trade," LICOS Discussion Papers 9901, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
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- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Disintegration and trade," ZEI Working Papers B 24-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
- I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger, 1999. "How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 81-94, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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