Ukrainian international trade: How far from the potential?
This paper applies the gravity theory to model Ukrainian trade patterns. I estimate two specifications — Global and Ukrainian. The former is used to forecast the optimal trade volumes and compare with the actual. The latter helps analyzing factors affecting Ukrainian trade. Ukraine explored its trade potential with the EU. On the other hand, having the low potential in 1995, the country achieved even better results in this direction in 2002. Trade with CIS deteriorated despite vast possibilities predicted by the model. Another unexplored opportunity is large economies of G7, Asia, and Americas. Ukraine could benefit liberalizing trade relations with Russia (to gain in trade and reach the potential) and with EU (to safeguard achieved results). Accession to the WTO might help in exploring the potential with G7 and other big economies.
|Date of creation:||18 Oct 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 92/94, Dmytrivska Str., suite 404, Kyiv, 01135 Ukraine|
Web page: http://www.eercnetwork.com
|Order Information:|| Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 92/94, Dmytrivska Str., suite 404, Kyiv, 01135 Ukraine|
Web: https://eercnetwork.com/paper Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan Deardorff, 1998.
"Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?,"
in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
- Edward Christie, 2001.
"Potential Trade in Southeast Europe: A Gravity Model Approach,"
wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers
11, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Edward Christie, 2002. "Potential Trade in Southeast Europe: a Gravity Model Approach," wiiw Working Papers 21, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001.
"Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michalopoulos, Constantine & Tarr, David, 1997. "The economics of customs unions in the Commonwealth of Independent States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1786, The World Bank.
- Oleh Havrylyshyn & Hassan Al-Atrash, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 98/22, International Monetary Fund.
- Wang, Z.K. & Winters, L.A., 1992.
"The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe,"
92-21, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- James Harrigan, 2001.
"Specialization and the volume of trade: do the data obey the laws?,"
140, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- James Harrigan, 2001. "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?," NBER Working Papers 8675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank.
- Djankov, Simeon & Freund, Caroline, 2000. "Disintegration and trade flows : evidence from the Former Soviet Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2378, The World Bank.
- Langhammer, Rolf J. & Lücke, Matthias, 2000.
"WTO negotiations and accession issues for vulnerable economies,"
Kiel Working Papers
990, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Langhammer, Rolf J. & Lucke, Matthias, 2001. "WTO Negotiation and Accession Issues for Vulnerable Economies," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Rolf J. Langhammer & Matthias Lücke, 2000. "WTO Negotiation and Accession Issues for Vulnerable Economies," Kiel Working Papers 990, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
- Edward Balistreri & Russell Hillberry, 2006. "Trade frictions and welfare in the gravity model: how much of the iceberg melts?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 247-265, February.
- Freinkman, Lev & Polyakov, Evgeny & Revenco, Carolina, 2003. "Armenia’s trade performance in 1995-2002 and the effect of closed borders: a cross-country perspective," MPRA Paper 10065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Laaser, Claus-Friedrich & Schrader, Klaus, 2002. "European integration and changing trade patterns: the case of the Baltic states," Kiel Working Papers 1088, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:05-14e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anton Pashchenko)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.