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Holding together or falling apart:Results of gravity equation of the CIS trade

Listed author(s):
  • Kurmanalieva, Elvira
  • Vinokurov, Evgeny

The main purpose of this paper is to assess intra-regional trade within the CIS by looking at the impact of numerous trade agreements in the region. Applying a gravity model on a set of 162 countries, we attempt to assess dynamics of intra-regional trade of various trade agreements between 1995 and 2008 in order to identify trade creation and trade diversion effects. We propose and empirically test three explanations of the CIS intra-regional trade: 1) home bias effect, 2) holding together effect and 3) holdup effect. Finally, we perform a simulation of potential trade and see to what extent twelve post-Soviet states and all their groupings would, ceteris paribus, have traded with each other.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32003/1/MPRA_paper_32003.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32003.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32003
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  10. Libman, Alexander, 2008. "Regional integration in Central Asia: A firm-centered view," MPRA Paper 10939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2000. "Integration, Disintegration and Trade in Europe: Evolution of Trade Relations During the 1990s," Working Papers 42, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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  14. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Libman, Alexander & Vinokurov, Evgeny, 2010. "Holding together regionalism and the interaction of functional bureaucracies," MPRA Paper 23217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Grigoriou, Christopher, 2007. "Landlockedness, infrastructure and trade : new estimates for central Asian countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4335, The World Bank.
  17. Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank.
  18. Vinokurov, Evgeny, 2010. "The System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration," MPRA Paper 22227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Brambor, Thomas & Clark, William Roberts & Golder, Matt, 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 63-82, December.
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  21. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar, 2010. "The Role of Trade Facilitation in Central Asia: A Gravity Model," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_628, Levy Economics Institute.
  22. Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
  23. Oleh Havrylyshyn & Hassan Al-Atrash, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 98/22, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-699, December.
  25. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, February.
  26. Gaël Raballand, 2003. "Determinants of the Negative Impact of Being Landlocked on Trade: An Empirical Investigation Through the Central Asian Case," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(4), pages 520-536, December.
  27. Robert Shelburne & Oksana Pidufala, 2006. "Evolving Trade Patterns in the CIS: The Role of Manufacturing," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1078, International Trade and Finance Association.
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