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The Effect of Oil Price on China's Exports

Author

Listed:
  • João Ricardo Faria

    (IPED - Institute for Policy and Economic Development - UTEP - University of Texas [El Paso])

  • André Varella Mollick

    (CoBA - College of Business Administration - University of Texas-Pan American)

  • Pedro Albuquerque

    (Euromed Marseille - École de management - Association Euromed Management - Marseille, DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale - GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Miguel A. León-Ledesma

    (School of Economics - University of Kent [Canterbury])

Abstract

The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik (2006)'s measure of export competitiveness, together with the oil price, productivity, real exchange rate, and foreign industrial production over the monthly 1992-2005 period. The results suggest a stable relationship and yields slightly positive values for the price of oil and elastic coefficients for export competitiveness, along with the expected negative elasticity for the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • João Ricardo Faria & André Varella Mollick & Pedro Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2009. "The Effect of Oil Price on China's Exports," Post-Print halshs-00747033, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00747033
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2009.04.003
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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