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On the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on the Real Exchange Rate - Terms of Trade Nexus : Revisiting Commodity Currencies

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  • Virginie Coudert
  • Cécile Couharde
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between terms of trade and real exchange rates of commodityproducing Commodity currencies,countries on both the short and the long run. We pay particular attention to the dominant role played by oil among commodities by investigating the potential non-linear effect exerted by the situation on the oil market on the real exchange rate - terms of trade nexus. To this end, we rely on the panel smooth transition regression methodology to estimate the adjustment process of the real effective exchange rate to its equilibrium value depending on the volatility on the oil market. Considering a panel of 52 commodity exporters and 17 oil exporters over the 1980-2012 period, our findings show that while exchange rates are mainly driven by fundamentals in the low-volatility regime, they are mostly sensitive to changes in terms of trade when oil price variations exceed a certain threshold. The commodity-currency property is thus at play in the short run only for important variations in the oil price.

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on the Real Exchange Rate - Terms of Trade Nexus : Revisiting Commodity Currencies," Working Papers 2013-40, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mahmut ZORTUK & Sinan ÇEKEN, 2015. "The Relationship between Health Care Expenditures and Income in the Selected Transition Economies: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 105-118, June.
    2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1774-1793, April.
    3. repec:ege:journl:v:17:y:2017:i:3:p:323-336 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Syed Shujaat AHMED & Abdul QAYYUM, 2016. "The Effect of Oil Prices and Regime Switches On Real Effective Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Markov Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 643-661, December.
    5. Mahmut Zortuk & Sinan Çeken, 2016. "Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve in the Selected Transition Economies with Panel Smooth Transition Regression Analysis," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(43), pages 537-537, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity currencies; Oil price; Non-linearity;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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