Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone
In this paper, we analyse currencies' misalignments of the CFA zone countries and the adjustment process of their real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level over the period 1985-2007. To this end, we firstly estimate, using panel cointegration techniques, a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Secondly, we estimate a panel smooth transition error correction model in order to take into account non linearities in the convergence process of real exchange rates towards their equilibrium level. Two main results emerge from our analysis. Firstly, the real appreciation of effective exchange rates in the CFA zone countries from the 2000s did not translate, in 2007, into a real overvaluation comparable to that occurring before the devaluation of the CFA franc in 1994. However, some countries are exceptions, indicating a strong heterogeneity within the CFA zone. Finally, the convergence process of real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level also differs substantially between country groups. These results tend to show the difficulty to apply a single exchange rate policy in the CFA zone and rather call for further coordination and policy harmonization between the countries.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://economix.fr
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pedroni, Peter, 2004.
"Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
- Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Antonia López Villavicencio, 2006.
"Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies,"
wpdea0605, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
- Antonia Lopez Villavicencio, 2006. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rates: a Panel Data Approach for Advanced and Emerging Economies," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 108, pages 59-81.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004.
"General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1240, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1229, CESifo Group Munich.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994.
"Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 94-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Elbadawi, Ibrahim A & Soto, Raimundo, 1997.
"Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Countries,"
Journal of African Economies,
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 74-120, Supplemen.
- Ibrahim A. Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, . "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Sahara Africa and Other Developing Countries," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv093, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
- Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269, March.
- Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yasser Abdih, 2006.
"FEER for the CFA Franc,"
IMF Working Papers
06/236, International Monetary Fund.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2008.
"Do Terms of Trade Drive Real Exchange Rates? Comparing Oil and Commodity Currencies,"
2008-32, CEPII research center.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Does Euro or Dollar Pegging Impact the Real Exchange Rate? The Case of Oil and Commodity Currencies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1557-1592, 09.
- Joannes Mongardini & Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium; Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund.
- Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010.
"Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
- Sophie Béreau & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate Towards its Equilibrium Value: a Panel Smooth Transition Error Correction Modelling," Working Papers 2008-23, CEPII research center.
- Magnus Saxegaard & StÃ©phane Roudet & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2007. "Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Waemu; A Robustness Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/194, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003.
"Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
236, Central Bank of Chile.
- Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Joannes Mongardini & Brett Rayner, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/75, International Monetary Fund.
- Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "On Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Is Emerging Asia Different?," Working Papers 2009-38, CEPII research center.
- González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2005.
"Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
604, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Ibrahim A. Elbadawi & Linda Kaltani & Raimundo Soto, 2009. "Aid, Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Documentos de Trabajo 368, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
- Peter Pedroni, 1999.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1997.
"Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
365, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
- Burcu Aydin, 2010. "Exchange Rate Assessment for Sub-Saharan Economies," IMF Working Papers 10/162, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2011-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Valérie Mignon)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.