IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Optimality of a monetary union : New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa

  • Issiaka Coulibaly
  • Blaise Gnimassoun

This paper aims to study the optimality of a monetary union in West Africa by using a new methodology based on the analysis of convergence and co-movements between exchange rate misalignments. Two main advantages characterize this original framework. First, it brings together the information related to several optimum currency area criteria— such as price convergence, terms of trade shocks, and trade and fiscal policies—going further than previous studies which are mainly based on only one criterion at a given time. Second, our study detects potential competitiveness differentials which play a key role in the debate on the optimality or not of a monetary union, as evidenced by the recent crisis in the Euro area. Relying on recent panel cointegration techniques and cluster analysis, our results show that the WAEMU area has a core composed by Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Senegal which can be joined by Ghana, Sierra Leone and, to a lesser extent, Gambia, and that Ghana and Senegal appear to be the best reference countries for the creation of the whole West Africa monetary union.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2012/WP_EcoX_2012-37.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX in its series EconomiX Working Papers with number 2012-37.

as
in new window

Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-37
Contact details of provider: Postal:
200 Avenue de la République, Bât. G - 92001 Nanterre Cedex

Web page: http://economix.fr
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 9072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Koop,Gary & Poirier,Dale J. & Tobias,Justin L., 2007. "Bayesian Econometric Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521855716, 1.
  3. Burcu Aydin, 2010. "Exchange Rate Assessment for Sub-Saharan Economies," IMF Working Papers 10/162, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Working Papers 2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," Working Paper Series rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  6. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Maylis Coupet, 2003. "On the Adequacy of Monetary Arrangements in Sub-Saharian Africa," Working Papers 2003-11, CEPII research center.
  7. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  8. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & David Guerreiro & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?," Working Papers 2012-13, CEPII research center.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1988. "Real and Monetary Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 1240, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Joannes Mongardini & Brett Rayner, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/75, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Hard or Soft Pegs? Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Trade in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 667-680.
  16. Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 105, Royal Economic Society.
  17. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & Olivier Damette, 2012. "La dynamique d'ajustement des taux de change réels dans la zone franc CFA," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(3), pages 545-555.
  18. Daniel Gros & Niels Thygesen, 1990. "Vers l'union monétaire européenne : pourquoi et comment ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(1), pages 131-153.
  19. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2011. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in African countries: A panel cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 939-947, May.
  20. Antonia López Villavicencio, 2006. "Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies," Working Papers wpdea0605, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  21. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yasser Abdih, 2006. "FEER for the CFA Franc," IMF Working Papers 06/236, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Coleman, Simeon, 2004. "An Aggregate View of Macroeconomic Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Study Using Innovation Accounting," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  23. Romain Houssa, 2004. "Monetary Union in West Africa and Asymmetric Shocks: A Dynamic Structural Factor Model Approach," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2004-17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  24. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
  25. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Determinants of economic growth: A Bayesian panel data approach," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1031, Banco de Espa�a.
  26. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Taux de change et mésalignements du franc CFA avant et après l’introduction de l’euro," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-3, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  27. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On Currency Misalignments within the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 35-48, 02.
  28. Gilles Dufrenot & Valerie Mignon & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 146(4), pages 731-761, December.
  29. Christophe HURLIN & V. MIGNON, 2006. "Une synthèse des tests de co-intégration sur données de panel," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1724, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  30. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  32. Guillaume, Dominique M. & Stasavage, David, 2000. "Improving Policy Credibility: Is There a Case for African Monetary Unions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1391-1407, August.
  33. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2006. "What is Fuzzy About Clustering in West Africa?," IMF Working Papers 06/90, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Paul R. Masson, 2008. "Currency Unions in Africa: Is the Trade Effect Substantial Enough to Justify their Formation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 533-547, 04.
  35. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:12:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments: CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
  37. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  38. Xavier Debrun & Paul Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Monetary union in West Africa: who might gain, who might lose, and why?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 454-481, May.
  39. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
  40. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
  41. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
  42. Joannes Mongardini & Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium: Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund.
  43. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  44. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 04/68, International Monetary Fund.
  45. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
  46. Magnus Saxegaard & Stéphane Roudet & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2007. "Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the WAEMU: A Robustness Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/194, International Monetary Fund.
  47. Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2011. "Union Monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest: Quelles Réponses à l'Hétérogénéité des Chocs ?," Working Papers halshs-00554309, HAL.
  48. Xavier Debrun & Catherine A. Pattillo & Paul R. Masson, 2010. "Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 10/157, International Monetary Fund.
  49. von Hagen, Jurgen & Neumann, Manfred J M, 1994. "Real Exchange Rates within and between Currency Areas: How Far Away Is EMU?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 236-44, May.
  50. Josep Llu�s Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tom�s del Barrio-Castro & Enrique L�pez-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, 07.
  51. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  52. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  53. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  54. Paul R. Masson, 2006. "New Monetary Unions in Africa: a Major Change in the Monetary Landscape?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 87-105.
  55. Céline Carrère, 2004. "African Regional Agreements: Impact on Trade with or without Currency Unions," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 13(2), pages 199-239, June.
  56. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  57. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 302, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  58. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  59. Chuku, Chuku, 2012. "The proposed eco: should West Africa proceed with a common currency?," MPRA Paper 43739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Julie Lochard, 2005. "Mesurer l'influence des unions monetaires sur le commerce," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 5-24.
  61. Etienne B. Yehoue & Gilles J. Dufrénot, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/164, International Monetary Fund.
  62. Ibrahim A. Elbadawi & Linda Kaltani & Raimundo Soto, 2009. "Aid, Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Documentos de Trabajo 368, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  63. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  64. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Valérie Mignon)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.