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FEER for the CFA franc

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  • Yasser Abdih
  • Charalambos Tsangarides

Abstract

We investigate the behaviour of the real effective exchange rates (REER) of the two CFA franc zone monetary unions - CEMAC and WAEMU - vis-a-vis their long-run equilibrium paths. A reduced form of the Edwards' (1989) fundamentals equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model is estimated using the Johansen's (1995) cointegration methodology, and equilibrium paths and associated misalignments are derived for the period 1970 to 2005. Our results suggest that, for both CEMAC and WAEMU, the fundamentals account for most of the exchange rates' fluctuation: increases in the terms-of-trade, government consumption and productivity tend to appreciate the exchange rate, while increases in investment and openness tend to depreciate it. At end of 2005, we find no evidence that either the CEMAC or WAEMU REERs were significantly over-valued, which suggests that no exchange rate action is currently needed. Our analysis also reveals significant differences in the fundamentals' marginal impact, and speed of reversion to equilibrium following a shock, which may raise questions about the desirability of maintaining the same parity for both monetary unions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasser Abdih & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "FEER for the CFA franc," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2009-2029.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:16:p:2009-2029
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701765411
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    1. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:5:p:949-974 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & Olivier Damette, 2011. "Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-28, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Samuel GUERINEAU & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 2007. "Can domestic debt contribute to the financing of the “Millennium Development Goals” ? The case of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)," Working Papers 200720, CERDI.
    4. Lendjoungou, Francis, 2009. "Competitiveness and the real exchange rate: the standpoint of countries in the CEMAC zone," MPRA Paper 17053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mahvash S Qureshi, 2008. "Africa’s Oil Abundance and External Competitiveness; Do Institutions Matter?," IMF Working Papers 08/172, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Issiaka & Guerreiro, David & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 428-441.
    7. Joannes Mongardini & Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium; Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund.
    8. A D Adom, 2016. "Resilience of developing countries to shocks: Case study of WAEMU countries with SUR and VAR Approaches," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 105-138, September.
    9. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufrénot & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2015. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 53(4), pages 237-271, December.
    10. Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Issiaka & Damette, Olivier, 2013. "Anchor currency and real exchange rate dynamics in the CFA Franc zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 722-732.
    11. Asongu, Simplice, 2014. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments: evidence from the CEMAC zone," MPRA Paper 63154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Taux de change et mésalignements du franc CFA avant et après l’introduction de l’euro," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Emilio Pineda & Paul Cashin & Yan M Sun, 2009. "Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/78, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 276-289, June.
    15. Grekou, Carl, 2015. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-154.
    16. Yutaka KURIHARA, 2011. "Introducing a Common Currency in Central Franc Zone: Is it Appropriate?," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 1(6), pages 1-11, October.
    17. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    18. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufr??not, & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2013. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1062, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    19. Yougbaré, Lassana, 2011. "Exchange rate arrangements and misalignments: contrasting words and deeds," MPRA Paper 32362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Gustavo Ramirez, 2007. "Competitiveness in the CFA Franc Zone," IMF Working Papers 07/212, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Elena Loukoianova & Plamen K Iossifov, 2007. "Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana," IMF Working Papers 07/155, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Magnus Saxegaard & Stéphane Roudet & Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2007. "Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the WAEMU; A Robustness Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/194, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2013. "Optimality of a monetary union: New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 463-482.
    24. Martin Hallet, 2008. "The role of the euro in Sub-Saharan Africa and in the CFA franc zone," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 347, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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