IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Implications of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries: theory, empirical evidence and application to growth performance in Zimbabwe

  • Ndlela, Thandinkosi
Registered author(s):

    The influence of exchange rate signals in an economy is very powerful and often pervasive. Moreover, sustained real exchange rate overvaluation, will, by distorting resource allocation away from productive activities, eventually lead to drastic adjustments of relative prices and reduction of aggregate economic growth. However, the direct theoretical and empirical link between exchange rate misalignment and macroeconomic indicators still remains to be fully understood. Nonetheless, empirical studies continue to make attempts to understand this relationship by exploring relationships that incorporate different measures of exchange rate misalignment in traditional growth regression models. Thus, based on a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate derived measure exchange rate misalignment, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between real gross domestic product growth and real exchange rate misalignment for Zimbabwe. After controlling for other structural and policy variables, the main findings demonstrate that exchange rate misalignment exerts a negative and highly statistically significant impact on growth. Overall, the results lend support to the hypothesis that chronic real exchange rate overvaluation was a key fundamental behind the post-2000 economic growth contraction in Zimbabwe.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32710/1/MPRA_paper_32710.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32710.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 11 Aug 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32710
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
    Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
    Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
    Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Tariffs, Capital Controls, and Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 22(1), pages 79-92, February.
    2. Goldberg, Linda S. & Karimov, Il'dar, 1997. "Black markets for currency, hoarding activity and policy reforms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 349-369, May.
    3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Haque, Nadeem U. & Montiel, Peter J., 1993. "Macroeconomic effects of anticipated devaluations with informal financial markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 133-153, October.
    4. Jose Veiga, Francisco, 1999. "What causes the failure of inflation stabilization plans?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 169-194, February.
    5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    6. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Real Exchange Rates in the Developing Countries: Concepts and Measure- ment," NBER Working Papers 2950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Khalid Sekkat & Aristomene Varoudakis, 2000. "Exchange rate management and manufactured exports in Sub-Saharan Africa," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7342, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," NBER Working Papers 12117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
    11. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi and Brian Kahn, 1997. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1997-16, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
    14. Krueger, Anne O & Schiff, Maurice & Valdes, Alberto, 1988. "Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries: Measuring the Effect of Sectoral and Economywide Policies," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(3), pages 255-71, September.
    15. Easterly, William & Loayza, Norman & Montiel, Peter, 1997. "Has Latin America's post-reform growth been disappointing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 287-311, November.
    16. Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "Exchange Controls, Devaluations, and Real Exchange Rates: The Latin American Experience," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(3), pages 457-94, April.
    17. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1989. "Macroeconomic policies for structural adjustment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 247, The World Bank.
    18. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    20. Dornbusch, Rudiger, et al, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40, February.
    21. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
    22. Pierre-Richard Agenor & E. Murat Ucer, 1999. "Exchange market reform, inflation, and fiscal deficits," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 81-96.
    23. Balassa, Bela, 1990. "Incentive policies and export performance in sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 383-391, March.
    24. Aron, Janine & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 1992. "Parallel markets, the foreign exchange auction, and exchange rate unification in Zambia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 909, The World Bank.
    25. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 1999. "Elections and the Timing of Devaluations," Research Department Publications 4164, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    26. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
    27. Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269, March.
    28. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, EconWPA.
    29. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
    30. Kiguel, Miguel & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1995. "Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 21-52, February.
    31. Vladimir Klyuev, 2003. "The Distributional Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 03/133, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
    33. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, 08.
    35. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 1992. "Real overvaluation, terms of trade shocks, and the cost to agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 831, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32710. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.